In reference to wave #1...I do not think that wave # 1 is going to be that much of a snow producer except for over the mountainous areas in SC PA and perhaps around the BGM area. Wave #1 when you look at the radar...is actually like I said moving in ahead of schedule.
However...steering currents are set up as to take this wave on a mainly ENE basis. Currently the low pressure is over West central Tennessee... This wave should continue to progress ENE but the bulk of the precipitation should stay over the southern regions from PA to extreme SNE...and points south. Majority of this will be a mainly rain event...
The importance of wave #1 is that the more southeast position of this allows the setup for the next wave which I think is the more important of the two waves as far as winter weather is concerned. This allows the negative EPO ridge to rise in the west and carves out a deeper trough along the eastern coast. While this is happening energy will be rounding the base of the carved out trough and position itself off the Carolina coast. It is this piece of energy that will become the main showmaker. With the trough carved out across the east and the ridge out west...this piece of energy will ride up the coast with a 1030 HP to its north. This will allow the 850s to be cold enough to support snowfall and with a 1030 HP to the north set the stage for a potential interior Northeast snowstorm. You can see this on the ECM from 12 Z...
As i mentioned, the 12 Z GFS...is confused with the amount of S/Ws or pieces of energy that it has within the trough...
Generally, the first wave should also help to pull down to the surface some of the colder air aloft. Also helping to aid in the 2nd wave potential outcome. With the second wave I think there is a good possibility that snowflakes will even make it into the bigger cities of the NE as I think the 2nd wave will have much better dynamics to work with. The 2nd wave will be more like a true Noreaster compared to the first wave which will be more like a southern slider.
So to sum things up ..Wave #1 will primarily be rain and the moisture will probably only make it as far north as SNE. Wave #2 is the most interesting wave with better dynamics and colder air. Wave #1 sets up the stage for wave #2...
I will probably issue a rainfall map for wave #1 during the course of the afternoon. Wave #1 will not have a snowfall map issued as it will primarily be the mountains in SC PA ...and perhaps around the BGM area...
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