Saturday, October 24, 2009

Severe For OCT 24, 2009



Low pressure over the GL region will continue to lift off to the NE. This will cause a warm front to move thru the region...followed by a cold front. CAPE is only minimal around 500...However, dewpoints are forecasted to be in the 60s. According to the SREF strong shear of 40-60 knots will be present.

However...I think one hindering factor to any severe weather at least from PA northwards will be the cloud cover and rain which could put a limit on how much day time heating can occur. So while I think its possible that there could be some wind damage.. i think the main chances will be further to the south where the calibrated 3 hr severe chances are better. In those areas..there could be a few supercells that would be capable of producing a few tornadoes.

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