Revised Snowfall Totals for Jan 17,18th 2009

After reviewing the 00z model guidance and noticing that QPF totals were cut down ..I decided to issue a revised map...

R.W.S has decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory as of 2:30 AM effective the next 6-9 hours. This will apply to the counties of berks and lehigh in PA.
WAA snows have overspread the area and continue to move thru in the next 6-9 hours.
The culprit for this is a clipper vortex south of the Great Lakes region which is slowly moving to the East Northeast. This vortex will spin out other vortexes and keep the chance of light snow thru out the day today and possibly into monday morning.
With the extremely cold temperatures that have been in place the snow will quickly make roads difficult to travel.
Over all R.W.S is not expecting much more then 1-3 inches in Lehigh and Berks County.
Spotter reports indicate that around an inch of snow has fallen in the ABE area.
Stay tuned to later statements if they become necessary! Bundle up when heading outside overnight tonight.

A Winter Weather advisory means that light snow /sleet/Zr is occurring and expected till the advisory expires. This advisory is expected to expire by 10 AM Est January 18th 2009

Clipper Snow Fall Totals For Jan 17-18 2009

A little clarification on the map above. The Philadelphia area and SJ area may see some light snow or flurries but would fall under the category of a nuisance type situation so thats why it is not included on the map.
Regardless of whether or not you get snow from this clipper..Make sure to bundle up as it will not be getting out of the teens over the majority of the area..

Omega Block Preliminary Map for Jan 17th Clipper

Pretty much in agreement between the two of us at this stage and time for the clipper..

January 17-18th Clipper and Coastal Scenarios

Ok these are scenario only maps and not a forecast. However..I think they are the most likely scenario at the moment. Going with a blend of the GFS/GGEM/UKMET and ECM involved to some extent as it is nodding towards the GFS....

Again these are scenario maps and not an actual forecast


What I am expecting to happen is for the Vortmax currently in Canada to drop South and break off a piece of energy and head it SE thru the ohio Valley and form a secondary off the coast of southern NJ. Which will move NE ward up the coast.
Meanwhile as this is happening that same vortmax will drop down the outside of the trough and swing into the SE states tapping into GOM moisture and will round the base of the trough and head NE up the eastern seaboard...With cold arctic air in place i do not see temperatures being an issue for anywhere with the exception of extreme southern New England coastline ..If we get a track to the benchmark then they as well will be mainly snow....

3:10 AM Update

R.W.S has effectively canceled the WWA that was in effect for all counties in PA & NJ....

Clipper currently located to the south of central Pa will continue to move ESE to off the southern Jersey coast. However...due to the very cold air most precipitation is falling aloft and not making it across the mountains in central Pa.
For the rest of the overnight expect clouds and windy conditions developing and dropping temperatures. As far as precipitation nothing more then flurries or a squall with the passage of the arctic front that may whiten the ground..

Updated at 12:30 AM

I placed this update on accuweather forums as soon as i got home from work....

Cloudy skies here ..I am downgrading the Map I had .....

Reason being is that the mountains have really broken up the moisture and ...the amount of virga and the moisture appears to be splitting into two sections...One heading NE and one heading ESE

As you can see the clipper is located to the south of SW PA ...
So with the above info and being stuck at work 8-12 midnight...this is the first time I have had a chance to revise my map and my thinking...
Although earlier this evening i sensed this heading SE..

The white section is 1-3 inches! Sorry forgot the color code for it!

Omega Block Final Map for January 14,15th

White Plains, NY (Jan. 14th. '09 - 1:22 AM):

Clipper moving from the Ohio valley to the east coast, will affect the area, by ejecting off the east coast via southern NJ-northern Delmarva during the late night hours of Wednesday the 14th, into the late morning hours of Thursday the 15th.

Moisture (QPF) associated with the clipper, ranges from 0.10 to 0.25, which due to high snow ratios as a result of very cold temperatures in the upper to lower 10's, will result in as much as 6 inches of snow from NE PA to N NJ on to NYC metro, SE NY and Long Island and then into RI, SE Mass and the Cape Code area. Areas to the north and south of the heavier axis of snow, will, possibly, pick up as much as 3 inches of snow.

Blustery conditions will exist, which could lead to the possibility of blizzard-like conditions. Winds could gust as high as 35 MPH and be sustained from 15 to 25 MPH during Thursday. As a result, dangerously cold windchill possibly below 1F and blowing snow may likely cause very problematic conditions for drivers and pedestrians. Make sure to bundle up in layers to be prepared for the harsh conditions that this weather event will bring.

Omega Block Weather will likely issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the forecast area, for as much as 6 inches of snow, any time between the next few hours and Wednesday afternoon. Please stay tuned for further updates.

R.W.S Winter Weather Advisory

The following is a Winter Weather Advisory issued by R.W.S. at 3:35 PM EST 1/13/09

The following winter weather advisory is in effect from 1/15/09 12 AM est to 1/15/09 12 noon Est ..

The Winter Weather Advisory covers the following counties.
In PA...
Berks, Bucks, Carbon, Lehigh, Northampton and Monroe.

In NJ
Morris, Sussex and Warren

An alberta clipper currently over the Dakotas will continue to drop to the south and east to central Missouri. At this point and time the clipper will move from west to east across southern ohio and track east from there to the south of the PA/MD border, tracking across Washington, DC, and moving east out to sea from there.
The snow will start to spread from west to east around midnight and should cover the entire region by 4 AM. There is not much qpf with this system. QPF ranges from .01 to the south to about .20 in the far NW suburbs. This will result in a 2-4 inch snowfall across Pa counties and 3-5 inches across the far NW Nj counties.

Remember that a winter weather advisory means that a light accumulation of snow/sleet or freezing rain is expected.
Also along with this winter weather advisory will be a potential for gusty NW winds after the storm ends. This will create blowing and drifting of the snowfall. Use caution when driving or venturing outdoors
Stay tuned for further winter weather updates

Update on Clipper Storm

Alright..due to the color code being wrong on the previous map I have decided to redo the map with some changes as well...
Last night at 5 AM when i was posting and watching the 6z GFS i was becoming a bit concerned with the northward extent of the precipitation. The 06 Z GFS was actually further south then the 00z GFS. I thought to myself at that time that it was just the GFS. ECM was not quite as far south as that 06 Z GFS was. However..I kept it in the back of my mind. Because the 6 Z GFS essentially moved the low from west to east off the Delmarva and did not even really turn it to the NE.

Now the 12 Z ECM comes out with the exact same thinking.....

QPF is relatively the same as previous runs..just now with the further south track becoming more and more apparent this will shift the snowfalls northern extent southwards...

SO with those thoughts in mind ..this is my updated final map
As i mentioned last night this is going to not have alot of QPF to work with. At the most .25 would be the highest. I am using 20:1 ratios. This is going to be a very fluffy type snowfall. One that will blow around quite easily and one that will be hard to measure due to the blowing around factor..

I do not expect Blizzard conditions by any means...

Throw that word out the window.
I could see some whiteout conditions if it gets windy enough because any snowfall will blow around easily. With all that in mind that is my final map and truly enjoy this snowfall as it is the type one can truly enjoy!

Jan 14,15th Final Map

Final Map based on a blend of the ECM/GFS/GGEM.. I have completely discarded the NAM and the UKMET...

A clipper is going to drop Southeast thru the Plain states and track to southern Ohio and then move east from there just south of the PA/MD border off the coast of southern Jersey before moving ENE...There is not alot of QPF associated with this storm ....Ranging from about 0.1 in Maryland to 0.7 in Philadelphia to about .25 in NNJ to southern New England. However...the snow ratios will be higher due to very cold air in place. Ratios could be as high as 30:1 to the north....

This will be a light fluffy snowfall that will blow around with any winds with ease. This will not be hard to shovel. This is the type of snowfall one can truly enjoy!

Omega Block Preliminary Map For January 15th Clipper Potential

Nothing much to describe here. Event seems pretty solid so far for accumulationg snows due to high ratios.

00Z-12Z ECMWF and 12Z GEFS blend used for the map, for this event being 2-3 days.

Storm should track over DC, and therefore areas to the north get most of the QPF that the clipper lifts out of the waters of the Atlantic near the coast.

Winter Weather Advisories, may be needed for the areas in the 3-5 inch range. My blog will consider the possibility to issue one on Wednesday, if conditions continue more or less how they are now, for the Tri-state area (NE NJ, NYC metro and SE NY, and SW CT).

January 15th Clipper Snowfall Potential

Winter Storm Warning Downgraded to Light Snow Advisory

Winter Storm Warning for the region has been downgraded to a light snow advisory effective 3 PM this afternoon thru midnight tonight.


Alright after digesting the complete 12 Z model suite... I have not really changed much thinking on the track of the storm. I still believe its going to track right across the PA/MD border due east and across the Jersey shore. Looking at radar it seems the precipitation is moving due east. The pressure falls that update each hour also appear to be moving due east. So i still think the track is above and then it will cut across ENE over southern Jersey.....

So everyone is on the same page here with my map ..I want people to understand that it is not the track of the storm that made me change the map. I am not sure how much snow has fallen out in western PA at this point so that area could be off depending on what has. However..my main concentration side is to the east....

What made me change my map is the intensity of the snowfall. According to the radar(s) it should be snowing here and aside from a flurry now and then it is not doing anything. We have had about an inch give or take. So i have cut down accumulations due to the intensity of the moisture.
Best lift and frontogenesis appears that it is going to be more to the north of the system even though the storm track is staying south of the region by going along the PA/ MD border...
So thats the explanation of the map and why the changes...

Another R.W.S Perspective By Dante

Omega Block Final Map Simplified Version

Omega Block Winter Storm Watch

****Omega Block Weather has issued a winter weather watch for the NYC metro area and its immediate counties in southeast New York State, which include, Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties.****

A pontential snowstorm of 6+ inches seems likely to affect the area starting late friday and lasting into sunday morning night. Plowable snowfall is likely and travel conditions will be problematic.

Latest model guidance, with exception to the ECMWF, which has been considered the outlier and not used into the blend by the HPC, show good consistency and agreement concerning the winter storm for the area this weekend, which now is likely. Therefore, Omega Block Weather has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the above mentioned counties and the NYC metro area. The metro area could see accumulations exceeding 6 inches, however at this point and time, it's not set in stone. So, further info and analysis will be done over the next 12 hours or so. A Winter Storm Warning will most likely be issued by Omega Block Weather, sometime friday afternoon for the same aforementioned areas.

Travel conditions will be impacted and delays will likely result. Please avoid stay driving if possible.

Please stay tuned for further updates, as this potential winter weather event nears.

R.W.S Winter Storm Warning for January 10-11

The following is a Winter Storm Warning Issued by R.W.S

The following Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the following Counties...
In PA..
Berks,Bucks,Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton and Philadelphia Counties. . As well as , Carbon Monroe, Pike counties, Luzerne, Lackawanna, Wyoming and Wayne...
In NJ
Hunterdon, Passaic, Morris, Sussex, and Warren Counties

R.W.S has issued a WSW effective 1/10/09 1 AM est time to 1/11/09 1 AM EST

Significant snowstorm on the way for the above counties.
Low pressure east of Montana will continue to move to the ESE and merge with a low pressure that is currently over S/W TX. This low pressure will then move ENE to Southern Indiana . From there this low pressure will move east across southern ohio and then across the Pa/MD border until it reaches the east coast. At this time it should cross across southern NJ as it makes the turn Northeast up the Eastern Seaboard.
This low pressure area will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. With cold air at the surface and the S/W going to the south of the area a heavy swath of snow will fall to the north of the low pressure center. Temperatures will be in the 20s to low 30s from North to south across the region.
The potential exists for the first widespread snowstorm of the season across the area. .
Across the immediate philadephia area..Enough warming aloft may cause the snow to mix with sleet lowering totals to the 5-7 inch range.
Remember a Winter Storm Warning means that a significant snowstorm of 6 inches or more of snow, along with the possibility of sleet and freezing rain is likely to occur within the next 24 hours. Please stay tuned to the latest updates and statements on this winter storm.

Omega Block Final Map For January 11

Map based on all the southern solution based models at a 80% level; (GFS, NAM, UKMET and GGEM).

The ECM has been used at a 20% level, thus resulting in lesser amounts for southern PA and NJ, which also introduces sleet in the southern areas of the map, and some sleet in the immediate coasts of Long Island and the Cape Cod area.

NYC metro receives a bit of sleet due to its heat island effect and some of the ECM's influence. Immediate suburbs of NYC, see mostly snow with sleet mixing in at times for brief periods.

R.W.S Winter Storm Watch

The following is a Winter Storm Watch Issued by R.W.S

The following Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the following Counties...
In PA..
Berks,Bucks,Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton and Philadelphia counties. As well as , Carbon Monroe, Pike counties, Luzerne, Lackawanna, Wyoming and Wayne...
In NJ
Hunterdon, Passaic, Morris, Sussex, and Warren Counties

R.W.S has issued a WSW effective 1/10/09 1 AM est time to 1/11/09 1 AM EST

The potential exists for a significant snowstorm across the following counties.
Low pressure over Montana will continue to move to the ESE and merge with a low pressure that will develop over the TX/OK panhandle. This low pressure will then move ENE to Southern Indiana . From there this low pressure will move east across southern ohio and then across the Pa/MD border until it reaches the east coast. At this time it should cross across southern NJ as it makes the turn Northeast up the Eastern Seaboard.
This low pressure area will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. With cold air at the surface and the S/W going to the south of the area a heavy swath of snow will fall to the north of the low pressure center. Temperatures will be in the 20s to low 30s from North to south across the region.
The potential exists for the first widespread snowstorm of the season across the area. Please stay tune to later updates as more information becomes available and is analyzed...

Remember a Winter Storm Watch means that the potential exists for 6 or more inches of snow, along with the possibility of sleet and freezing rain. If the storm should become imminent a Winter Storm Warning will be issued.

Omega Block Special Weather Statement

****Omega Block Weather has issued a special weather statement for the NYC metro area and its immediate counties in southeast New York State, which include, Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties.****

A potential snowstorm of 4+ inches seems likely to affect the area starting late friday and lasting into saturday night. Plowable snowfall is likely and travel conditions would be problematic.

If model guidance consistency continues through the next 24 hours, the special weather statement will be upgraded to a winter storm watch for the area.

Please stay tuned for further updates, as this potential winter weather event nears.

R.W.S. Partner Map Created by Omega Block Weather

00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF blend, for track and QPF was used for this preliminary forecast scenario map.

Due to the east to west nature of the track, highest QPF will be to the north of the system, so as the system exits the coast and starts tracking more NE, the area of highest QPF switches to the NW, hence the scenario i have, using the blend described above.

R.W.S Special Weather Statement for January 10-11th

R.W.S. Special Weather Statement

Significant Snow Storm Possible

Timeframe 7 AM Saturday -7 AM Sunday...

Low pressure just to the North of the Pacific Northwest will move east south east at the same time southern stream energy will be forming on the Tx/oklahoma Panhandle. This southern stream energy will become the dominant player. This S/W will move on a ENE basis thru western Tennessee into Eastern KY and then Western VA. From here this S/W will move east off the coast around the Delmarva before moving ENE up the coast.
The potential exists for a significant snowfall for MD, Southern PA, South Central PA into Central NJ and Northern New Jersey into NYC and Southern New England.
Please stay tuned for further updates!

R.W.S Ice Storm Warning

The following is an Ice Storm Warning issued at 2:15 PM EST 1-6-09 by R.W.S. Effective 1-6-09 6 PM to 1-7-09 12 Noon EST.

The following statement applies to the counties of Sussex, Warren, Morris, Carbon, Monroe,Berks, Bucks, Lehigh, Northampton and counties in Pa.

Effective 1/06/09 6 PM to 1/07/09 12 noon eastern standard time
R.W.S Special Weather Statement

Significant ice storm to effect the area

Low pressure developing over the Tennessee Valley early this afternoon will continue to move North NortheastThis low pressure has tapped into a supply of moisture from the GOM. This area of low pressure will move towards the Ohio Valley.
With a Greenland Block in place and a strong -NAO of 2.5 SD ..this primary will hit a brick wall of confluence and be forced to hand off its energy to a secondary area of low pressure. The development of this secondary low pressure should take place off the coast of southern Jersey WAA will spread out ahead of the primary low and will run over the top of lower level cold air. CAD will be firmly entrenched across the areas N & W of I-95.
The potential exists for a couple inches of snow followed by a long duration of ice. The potential exists in the above regions up to .50 inches of ice The potential exists for a dangerous ice storm.

Please stay tuned for future statements about this potentially dangerous storm from R.W.S.

January 6-8th Ice Storm

Pink section across the south...T-1 inch possible of snow and sleet .10 ice possible otherwise turning to rain.
Pink section across NW PA 1-3 inches of snow and sleet with a .10 inch ice
Red section across PA 1-3 inches of snow/sleet possible ..main threat ice storm....25-.50 ice Greatest ice accrual from central PA into East central PA
Red section Across NW NJ 2-4 inches of snow/sleet followed by Zr significant ice accumulations of .25+
Red section across NY and points east 2-4 inches of snow/sleet with .25 inches ice possible
Pink section across the North 1-3 inches of snow/sleet some AR mixing in before mixing with plain rain and possibly changing to plain rain
Light blue not including Maine 4-8 inches of snow possible..may mix with sleet but primarily will be snow
In the state of Maine 6-9 inches of snow..Along the coast may mix with sleet and freezing rain holding accumulations down... more like 3-5 along the coast...

Ice Storm Watch By R.W.S

The following is an Ice Storm Watch issued at 5:50 PM EST by R.W.S.

The following statement applies to the counties of Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset in New Jersey. Carbon, Monroe,Berks, Bucks, Lehigh, Chester, Northampton and Pike counties in Pa.

Effective 1/06/09 7 PM to 1/07/09 12 noon eastern standard time
R.W.S Special Weather Statement

Potential Winter Storm to effect the area.

Low pressure developing over the Southeast USA early this afternon will continue to move East Northeast.This low pressure has tapped into a supply of moisture from the GOM. This area of low pressure will move thru the Mississippi Valley as it heads towards the Ohio Valley.
With a Greenland Block in place and a strong -NAO ..this primary will hit a brick wall of confluence and be forced to hand off its energy to a secondary area of low pressure. The development of this secondary low pressure is still not agreed upon by models. However, the area for development should be the Delmarva to just south of LI. WAA will spread out ahead of the primary low and will run over the top of lower level cold air. CAD will be firmly entrenched across the areas N & W of I-95.
The potential exists for a couple inches of snow followed by a long duration of ice. The potential exists in the above regions for .25-.50 The potential exists for a dangerous ice storm.

Please stay tuned for future statements about this potentially dangerous storm from R.W.S.

January 6-8th Winter Storm Scenario

WSW-National Weather Service

Issued at approximately 3:45 AM

As founder of R.W.S it brings me great pride to see the NWS agrees with my thinking that has been in place for more then a week now. R.W.S issued a Special Weather Statement well over an hour ago to be now followed by the NWS..

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EST MON JAN 5 2009

...A WINTER STORM COULD BRING THE REGION SNOW THEN FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-051700-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.090106T2300Z-090107T1600Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN
346 AM EST MON JAN 5 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT SETTING UP FOR WINTRY
WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY AND HEAD NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW SHOULD PULL A WARM FRONT AND A
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

INITIALLY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW, OR SNOW AND SLEET
MIXED TUESDAY EVENING. ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA, TO UP TO 4
INCHES OVER THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS FREEZING RAIN. AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT, THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 32. ICE COULD
ACCUMULATE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AFTER THE CHANGEOVER.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

RNS

Teleconnector Update as of January 4th

Teleconnectors continue to indicate a very negative NAO of about -2.8 SD. They also continue to keep the NAO negative till the end of the period when it goes neutral and stays neutral.
PNA is negative as of last night but slowly trending to neutral and then expected to go positive and stay positive .
Meanwhile the EPO which is positive is expected to fall to neutral territory and then stay there....

All and all these signals continue to support a cold pattern across the east and northeast in the medium and long term. As we start to lose the NAO to neutral the EPO at neutral and a positive PNA will still be a cold signal for the east and northeast much like late November into Mid December.

Special Weather Statement!

Issued 1/05/09 at 2:20 AM
The following statement applies to the counties of Berks, Bucks, Lehigh, Carbon, Monroe, Northampton counties in Pennsylvania. The following statement applies to Morris, Passaic, Sussex, and Warren Counties in New Jersey.

Effective 1/06/09 7 PM to 1/07/09 12 noon eastern standard time
R.W.S Special Weather Statement

Potential Winter Storm to effect the area.

Low pressure developing over the southwest USA early this morning will head eastward and tap into moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico. This area of low pressure will move Northeast from the Gulf of Mexico thru the Mississippi Valley as it heads towards the Ohio Valley.
With a Greenland Block in place and a strong -NAO ..this primary will hit a brick wall of confluence and be forced to hand off its energy to a secondary area of low pressure. The development of this secondary low pressure is still not agreed upon by models. However, the area for development should be the Delmarva to just south of LI. WAA will spread out ahead of the primary low and will run over the top of lower level cold air. CAD will be firmly entrenched across the areas N & W of I-95.
The potential exists for a couple inches of snow followed by a long duration of ice. The potential exists in the above regions for .25 + ice. The potential exists for a dangerous ice storm.

Please stay tuned for future statements about this potentially dangerous storm from R.W.S.

January 7th Winter Storm Potential Update

January 7th Winter Storm Update! 00z GFS and 00z ECM are posted up above. Taking a look at the 00z GFS tonight it appears to have two high pressures to the north of the system which continue to show a strong CAD signature. Despite the GFS still keeping the primary on the strong side..despite the GFS developing the secondary too far north...it still continues to signal a Wintry Weather solution for those that are primarily N & W of I-95. Operational GFS develops the secondary to the north of Mass..while the GFS ensembles deepen it south of Mass.
Looking at tonights ECM..it has fine tuned some from the 12 Z run which showed the Primary heading into Wisconsin. I realized that was wrong this morning so tonights ECM is no surprise that it jumped back South and East. The ECM is also colder then it was at 12 Z and is also signifying a wintery storm in the same regions.
00z NAM which i do not have posted has the same general concept as the rest of guidance with one exception..the 00z NAM develops the secondary off of the Delmarva and moves it NE from there.
So as you can see from reading above we are still not in model harmony for this event and likely will not be until under 24 hours. 00z tomorrow night. Thats the analysis.
I am going to follow this post with two more posts tonight. The next post coming will be my thoughts generally on what I see happening at this point and time. The second will be the teleconnectors. Look for them in about 20 minutes!

Updated Teleconnectors as of January 3rd

NAO currently still at negative 3. This is a very strong Negative NAO. PNA still forecasted to become positive and stay positive while the EPO is forecasted to go to neutral. These signals continue to suggest that the medium to long range will be cold in the east and northeast with a trough along the east and a ridge out west!

January 7th Winter Storm Potential

This is a heads up to all those that read this blog about the potential for a winter storm for tuesday night into wednesday. The ingredients are pretty much set in place to set the stage for what could become a significant ice storm across the State of PA into NW NJ....
As you can clearly see the ECM as it is getting in its short range has come even more South and East of its previous run and colder then its previous run. Also the GFS after its horrendous 18 Z fluke run has also come back to the same idea of showing CAD across the region.
Now it has been expressed that there is no way that there could be CAD in this situation.
Let me clearly explain what is happening ... Currently in place we have what is known as Greenland blocking. We also currently have a very negative NAO. A rising PNA. All these together spell confluence over the Northeast and the Great Lakes provided by the high pressures to the North. These highs should only trend stronger with time.
Essentially what should happen is the primary will head out of the Mississippi Valley up the western side of the Appalachians. This primary will hit the confluence and will be forced to hand off to a secondary area of low pressure. Where that secondary area of low pressure tracks will be key. Also where the secondary area forms.
As it stands currently the area is looking at a significant ice storm potentially. Stay tuned for further information!

Teleconnector Update as of January 1st

EPO is positive but trending to neutral at the end of the period
PNA is negative trending to positive.
NAO is quite negative but trends to neutral at the end of the period...
All and All these connections which control and are the driving force of our weather are showing a ridge along the west coast and a trough along the east coast. This should keep the east coast under colder conditions and possibly stormy as well. Just as the NAO looks to go to Neutral, the EPO looks to go down to neutral as well. Have to see where they both trend over the next few days cause if the NAO were to go positive..we could continue the cold with a -EPO taking its place....

January Outlook Created 9 Months ago!

This is my January forecast created back in March of 2008. I am not going to tweak it or adjust anything as I believe it should hold up quite well...

Departures for KABE
January 1st Negative 9

Daily Departures at KABE

December 1st Positive 2
December 2nd Negative 4
December 3rd Negative 6
December 4th Positive 3
December 5th Negative 9 (Edited to meet the NWS)
December 6th Negative 11 (Edited too meet NWS)
December 7th Negative 10
December 8th Negative 14
December 9th Seasonal (No Departure edited to meet NWS final #)
December 10th Positive 15
December 11th Positive 3 (edited to meet NWS)
December 12th Positive 2 (edited to meet NWS)
December 13th Negative 6 (edited to meet NWS)
December 14th Negative 1
December 15th Positive 18 (RECORD HIGH 61 BROKE 1918 record of 60)
December 16th Positive 8 (High of 51 came at midnight yesterday)
December 17th Positive 3
December 18th Positive 3
December 19th Negative 2
December 20th Negative 6
December 21st Negative 3
December 22nd Negative 15
December 23rd Negative 11
December 24th Positive 9
December 25th Positive 7
December 26th Seasonal -No Departure
December 27th Positive 7
December 28th Positive 21 (record high of 63)
December 29th Positive 7
December 30th Positive 6
December 31st Negative 3
Overall for the month the departure was 0.5 which would fall under the Seasonal range.

Above is the departures for the month and also the image that I made 9 months in advance. For the most part the Northeast ended up seasonal to slightly below with some areas that fell into the above Category...All and all I think for 9 months in advance this was a pretty good call...Let me know what you think readers by letting a comment :)