Winter Storm Potential For Nov 26-28th 2009

Alright looking at a few images at the present time. The first of which is the steering currents..You can see them above. As you can see the steering currents are set up in a fashion that the heavier precipitation which is off shore should remain off shore for the time being..Perhaps completely. Looking at the radar you can see this to be true.. Above as well.Currently the upper level low is located over the great lakes and if you go back in time 1 hour on the pressure falls you can see that it is moving to the ENE.As you can see looking at the surface map we do have a low that is pretty far off the east coast. You can also see this above.
Now..about the only way that this heavier moisture offshore is going to effect the east coast is if the trough were to go negative tilt and the ULL were to capture the low off the east coast and pull it in westwards. I think this will happen but I think it will happen to far to the north to effect the Mid Atlantic. In other words...this is only November and this is not the mid atlantics storm. Any precipitation that the mid atlantic is going to recieve is going to be essentially from a piece of energy that is going to try and form over MD..that could enhance precipitation that will be associated with the ULL and in advance of the cold front. The storm that is off the east coast should intensify and deepen but once again this will be too late for the mid atlantic. Any snowfall that does fall in WV, PA will be associated with the upper level low and this will be confined to the higher elevations. Its possible that as the low moves off to the northeast and pulls away that colder air could wrap in aloft and work its way to the surface that could allow some snowflakes to mix in. Again this would be inland and away from the coast.. Surface temps are not going to be really supportive of anything else considering there is substantial cloud cover in place which will not let the temps drop over night tonight. So we would have to depend on dynamical cooling and a rapidly deepening storm. So with that in mind here is my final map to go along with my final thoughts. Of course this does not mean that I will not be nowcasting the event as I will be for certain..