November 29th Daily Weather Discussion
It feels Like Winter Early This Morning!
November 28th high temperature was 51
Today is going to be a mostly sunny day across the region but clouds will be on the increase and by night time there will be a chance of rain across the western regions with perhaps some snow as well into the western regions of NNE. This is all courtesy of a frontal system working its way towards the region. The rest of the region will just have increasing clouds in the evening time with any precipitation holding off till the morning of the 30th.
Temperatures today will be in the 30s to 40s across Maine and then the 40s in well interior regions to the mid 50s to lower 60s further towards the coast to slightly inland.. Moderation before the plunge...
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Saturday, November 28, 2009
November 28th Weather Discussion
November 28th Weather Discussion
1 Week & Counting!
November 27th High Temperature @ KABE was 47 degrees
Today is going to start off partly to mostly cloudy over the southern regions but then it will start to clear out in the afternoon. It will be on the breezy side with winds gusting in the 20s but they will diminish by afternoon. To the North rain will continue with higher elevation snows. Some places could end up with over 10 inches before all is said and done.
Temperatures will be in the 30s in Maine to the 40s elsewheres with the exception of immediately along the coast of SNE..down thru NJ into Delaware and then to the south of PA it will be in the 50s..
1 Week & Counting!
November 27th High Temperature @ KABE was 47 degrees
Today is going to start off partly to mostly cloudy over the southern regions but then it will start to clear out in the afternoon. It will be on the breezy side with winds gusting in the 20s but they will diminish by afternoon. To the North rain will continue with higher elevation snows. Some places could end up with over 10 inches before all is said and done.
Temperatures will be in the 30s in Maine to the 40s elsewheres with the exception of immediately along the coast of SNE..down thru NJ into Delaware and then to the south of PA it will be in the 50s..
Friday, November 27, 2009
November 27th Daily Weather Discussion
November 27th Daily Weather Discussion
Are you ready for the Pattern Change? Prepare NOW!
November 26th High Temperature @ KABE was 54 degrees
We currently have an upper level low over the Great lakes with a low pressure off the coast of the Mid Atlantic with what could be another low pressure developing off the SNJ coast. So todays forecast is really going to be complicated and have to come down to nowcasting. We also have a cold front that is working thru the area that is starting to kick off some gusty winds. So its going to be a breezy day and its also going to be a wet and potentially white day over the higher terrain from Western and central PA northeast wards but I would not be surprised to see the rain mix with or end as some flakes of snow in places like East Central Pa and around NYC...
Temperatures will be in the 30s to 40s in Maine and in the 40s elsewheres...This is the first part of the pattern change that is coming. One step down...brief moderation before the STEP DOWN occurs.
I been talking about it for alot now & there is no doubt that it is coming and stay tuned here for the latest on the cold & potential snow possibilities that will come along with it!
Are you ready for the Pattern Change? Prepare NOW!
November 26th High Temperature @ KABE was 54 degrees
We currently have an upper level low over the Great lakes with a low pressure off the coast of the Mid Atlantic with what could be another low pressure developing off the SNJ coast. So todays forecast is really going to be complicated and have to come down to nowcasting. We also have a cold front that is working thru the area that is starting to kick off some gusty winds. So its going to be a breezy day and its also going to be a wet and potentially white day over the higher terrain from Western and central PA northeast wards but I would not be surprised to see the rain mix with or end as some flakes of snow in places like East Central Pa and around NYC...
Temperatures will be in the 30s to 40s in Maine and in the 40s elsewheres...This is the first part of the pattern change that is coming. One step down...brief moderation before the STEP DOWN occurs.
I been talking about it for alot now & there is no doubt that it is coming and stay tuned here for the latest on the cold & potential snow possibilities that will come along with it!
Thursday, November 26, 2009
November 26th Weather Discussion
November 26th Weather Discussion
Happy Thanksgiving To One & To All.
November 25th High temperature at KABE was 50 degrees
A cloudy day is on tap weather wise across the region with showers approaching the western regions during the day. Elsewheres we will have cloudy skies with the potential for that misty drizzle and early morning fog possible as well. Any steadier rain from the ULL over the great lakes will hold off until the evening time. There is a question of just how much precipitation will be over the eastern side inland areas. At this point I do not think it will be anything substantial. Rather more around the nuisance category.
Temperatures once again will range from the 40s in Maine to the 50s elsewheres! Being that there is nothing exciting happening to much today and its Thanksgiving -make sure to take some time and spend it with your loved ones, friends & family.
Happy Thanksgiving To One & To All.
November 25th High temperature at KABE was 50 degrees
A cloudy day is on tap weather wise across the region with showers approaching the western regions during the day. Elsewheres we will have cloudy skies with the potential for that misty drizzle and early morning fog possible as well. Any steadier rain from the ULL over the great lakes will hold off until the evening time. There is a question of just how much precipitation will be over the eastern side inland areas. At this point I do not think it will be anything substantial. Rather more around the nuisance category.
Temperatures once again will range from the 40s in Maine to the 50s elsewheres! Being that there is nothing exciting happening to much today and its Thanksgiving -make sure to take some time and spend it with your loved ones, friends & family.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Winter Storm Potential For Nov 26-28th 2009
Alright looking at a few images at the present time. The first of which is the steering currents..You can see them above. As you can see the steering currents are set up in a fashion that the heavier precipitation which is off shore should remain off shore for the time being..Perhaps completely. Looking at the radar you can see this to be true.. Above as well.Currently the upper level low is located over the great lakes and if you go back in time 1 hour on the pressure falls you can see that it is moving to the ENE.As you can see looking at the surface map we do have a low that is pretty far off the east coast. You can also see this above.
Now..about the only way that this heavier moisture offshore is going to effect the east coast is if the trough were to go negative tilt and the ULL were to capture the low off the east coast and pull it in westwards. I think this will happen but I think it will happen to far to the north to effect the Mid Atlantic. In other words...this is only November and this is not the mid atlantics storm. Any precipitation that the mid atlantic is going to recieve is going to be essentially from a piece of energy that is going to try and form over MD..that could enhance precipitation that will be associated with the ULL and in advance of the cold front. The storm that is off the east coast should intensify and deepen but once again this will be too late for the mid atlantic. Any snowfall that does fall in WV, PA will be associated with the upper level low and this will be confined to the higher elevations. Its possible that as the low moves off to the northeast and pulls away that colder air could wrap in aloft and work its way to the surface that could allow some snowflakes to mix in. Again this would be inland and away from the coast.. Surface temps are not going to be really supportive of anything else considering there is substantial cloud cover in place which will not let the temps drop over night tonight. So we would have to depend on dynamical cooling and a rapidly deepening storm. So with that in mind here is my final map to go along with my final thoughts. Of course this does not mean that I will not be nowcasting the event as I will be for certain..
November 25th Daily Weather Discussion
November 25th Daily Weather Discussion
High temperature November 24th @ KABE was 58 degrees
Damp, dreary and still on track!
Today is going to be a mostly cloudy day with the chance of showers & or drizzle across the region. All eyes are going to be on a ULL that is currently over Illinois and a potential coastal developing along the coast. I strongly feel after looking at some things late yesterday evening and early this morning that this is going to come down to a nowcasting event. So basically for today expect a relatively miserable day weather wise.
Temperatures will range from the 40s in Maine to the low to mid 50s elsewheres...
High temperature November 24th @ KABE was 58 degrees
Damp, dreary and still on track!
Today is going to be a mostly cloudy day with the chance of showers & or drizzle across the region. All eyes are going to be on a ULL that is currently over Illinois and a potential coastal developing along the coast. I strongly feel after looking at some things late yesterday evening and early this morning that this is going to come down to a nowcasting event. So basically for today expect a relatively miserable day weather wise.
Temperatures will range from the 40s in Maine to the low to mid 50s elsewheres...
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
November 24th Daily Weather Discussion
November 24th Daily Weather Discussion
Stepping Down Slowly
November 23rd High temperature @ KABE was 50 degrees
Today is going to be another rainy day across the region with perhaps the steadiest rain coming in between the time i am writing this and about 10 AM across eastern Pa into NJ. Rain should clear out of the area no later then noon but further NE into SNE the chance of rain will hang on thru the afternoon. Otherwise it will remain cloudy for the most part.
Temperatures will once again be in the 40s across Maine and then the mid and upper 50s generally elsewhere!
Stepping Down Slowly
November 23rd High temperature @ KABE was 50 degrees
Today is going to be another rainy day across the region with perhaps the steadiest rain coming in between the time i am writing this and about 10 AM across eastern Pa into NJ. Rain should clear out of the area no later then noon but further NE into SNE the chance of rain will hang on thru the afternoon. Otherwise it will remain cloudy for the most part.
Temperatures will once again be in the 40s across Maine and then the mid and upper 50s generally elsewhere!
Monday, November 23, 2009
November 23rd Weather Discussion
November 23rd Weather Discussion
November 22nd High temp @ KABE was 54 degrees
Knock Knocking On the East Coast Door
Today is going to be a mostly cloudy and breezy day with rainfall approaching the region between 7 AM and noon! Low pressure will be developing off hatteras and moving northeast up the coast. However..precipitation is further inland then what was generally to be expected. Do not be surprised if it takes a little time to moisten the atmosphere...This rainfall will generally cover SNE and points along the coast and inland by about 50-100 miles.
Temperatures will generally be in the upper 30s to upper 40s in Maine and then the mid and upper 40s most elsewhere..with the exception of Cape Cod where it could get into the 50s due to being closer to the warm waters and also the coastal storm itself...
Generally anywhere from a T to as much as 1.25 ..with the higher amounts closer to the coast...can be expected..
November 22nd High temp @ KABE was 54 degrees
Knock Knocking On the East Coast Door
Today is going to be a mostly cloudy and breezy day with rainfall approaching the region between 7 AM and noon! Low pressure will be developing off hatteras and moving northeast up the coast. However..precipitation is further inland then what was generally to be expected. Do not be surprised if it takes a little time to moisten the atmosphere...This rainfall will generally cover SNE and points along the coast and inland by about 50-100 miles.
Temperatures will generally be in the upper 30s to upper 40s in Maine and then the mid and upper 40s most elsewhere..with the exception of Cape Cod where it could get into the 50s due to being closer to the warm waters and also the coastal storm itself...
Generally anywhere from a T to as much as 1.25 ..with the higher amounts closer to the coast...can be expected..
Nov 23-25th Potential Rains
Almost seems as a familiarity to this event as a recent rain event from IDA. Just as then..we have a strong high pressure to the north which is going to provide a difficult time for the rains northward advancement. However that high pressure will start to move off the coast. Meanwhile the low is currently over NW Florida but is expected to redevelop off the Hatteras coast and move off to the NE. However..the rainshield is generally progressing more northwards due to the steering currents in place. So with that in mind the above is my current thinking for rainfalls.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
November 22nd Daily Weather Discussion
November 22nd Daily Weather Discussion
November 21st high temp at KABE was 56
A Step Down To A Colder Pattern In the Making!
Today is going to be mainly a partly to mostly sunny day but with some increasing cloudiness later in the afternoon into the evening and perhaps some showers to the south of PA by the late evening time. Today will be one more nice day to get out and enjoy before things go down hill and stay downhill. Or you might look at it as going uphill if you like a step down pattern into colder weather but going thru some wet weather to get there.
Temperatures will be generally in the upper 30s to upper 40s in Maine and low 50s to upper 50s elsewheres. Get ready for the plunge downhill!
November 21st high temp at KABE was 56
A Step Down To A Colder Pattern In the Making!
Today is going to be mainly a partly to mostly sunny day but with some increasing cloudiness later in the afternoon into the evening and perhaps some showers to the south of PA by the late evening time. Today will be one more nice day to get out and enjoy before things go down hill and stay downhill. Or you might look at it as going uphill if you like a step down pattern into colder weather but going thru some wet weather to get there.
Temperatures will be generally in the upper 30s to upper 40s in Maine and low 50s to upper 50s elsewheres. Get ready for the plunge downhill!
Saturday, November 21, 2009
November 21st Daily Weather Discussion
November 21st Daily Weather Discussion
Waiting for the Cold!
November 20th high temperature at KABE was 60 degrees
Today will basically be a partly to mostly sunny day across the region and perhaps the nicest day out of the next several coming up..perhaps aside from sunday. Generally speaking today will basically feel like a fall day.. however still quite on the pleasant side.
Temperatures will range from the 40s to 50 in maine to the mid to upper 50s generally elsewhere. Take the time to get out and enjoy the next two days because its about to take a step down...and then there after might just be too cold for outdoor activity! (Hint Hint)
Waiting for the Cold!
November 20th high temperature at KABE was 60 degrees
Today will basically be a partly to mostly sunny day across the region and perhaps the nicest day out of the next several coming up..perhaps aside from sunday. Generally speaking today will basically feel like a fall day.. however still quite on the pleasant side.
Temperatures will range from the 40s to 50 in maine to the mid to upper 50s generally elsewhere. Take the time to get out and enjoy the next two days because its about to take a step down...and then there after might just be too cold for outdoor activity! (Hint Hint)
Friday, November 20, 2009
November 20th Daily Weather Discussion
November 20th Daily Weather Discussion
Rainy Weather Continues North
Today will continue to be a rainy day to the north of PA..as in PA and south the rain will be tapering off come early morning between 6 Am and noon time. However up north it will be a different story. Regardless of what your NWS says..temperatures tonight are going to be on the rise as they have been all evening yesterday. Currently as i write this it is 60 degrees...
So day time highs are occurring early today and will generally range once again from the 40s in Maine to the mid 50s to mid 60s elsewhere. Going above guidance with the temps rising.
Nov 19th High temp @ KABE was 59 degrees
Rainy Weather Continues North
Today will continue to be a rainy day to the north of PA..as in PA and south the rain will be tapering off come early morning between 6 Am and noon time. However up north it will be a different story. Regardless of what your NWS says..temperatures tonight are going to be on the rise as they have been all evening yesterday. Currently as i write this it is 60 degrees...
So day time highs are occurring early today and will generally range once again from the 40s in Maine to the mid 50s to mid 60s elsewhere. Going above guidance with the temps rising.
Nov 19th High temp @ KABE was 59 degrees
Thursday, November 19, 2009
R,W,S Forecasts You Can Trust!
I think I need to take the time to make a post in regards to forecasting procedures with Real Weather Services. When R.W.S issues a forecast, a forecast discussion, a pattern discussion or anything talking about weather..it is a policy to use models as guidance and guidance alone. There will never be any such thing as looking at one operational run and basing a forecast off of that. Forecasts will be based on all operational model runs, of all models and all ensembles blended into the most likely scenario that is being driven and controlled via the teleconnections.
So many that discuss the weather and follow the weather do not understand that it is these teleconnections that drive the weather. They are responsible for the weather that occurs on a daily basis. You will always see this happening with R.W.S. It is a must know Basic 101 weather.
In addition.. Real Weather Services will never twist or distort historical records and data to feed any kind of agenda. If the historical records say that a certain year was an El Nino year then R.W.S will acknowledge that. Weather history is important because weather patterns have a habit of repeating themselves. It is kind of like when one was in high school and had history class you probably heard your teacher say that its important to know the history so that we do NOT repeat and make the same mistakes. History in school was very important for the future. In weather, past history is very relevant to the future weather.
Models are to be used as guidance and are to be used to hone in and tune in on patterns that are being suggested but those patterns have to and must be in line with the teleconnections are in place. For example, if an operational run is showing a ridge on the east coast and warm air in place...but the teleconnections are showing a -NAO + PNA and - EPO then you know that the operational run is in error. Pattern recognition is something that is very important to Real Weather Services. Pattern recognition with teleconnection observance can save yourself the emotional up and downs when viewing the different model runs.
Nowcasting. Nowcasting is something that is very important to Real Weather Services because no matter how much a particular model seems to have a storm in its range ..the sensible weather does not always follow what the model says it should. Satellite observations, surface observations, pressure falls, water vapor..In other words we feel that looking at what is happening "now" is a more accurate way of forecasting any storm systems.
Of course the biggest pet peeve with Real Weather Services is that we do not tolerate any wishcasting. We do not tolerate any bittercasting. You will never see Real Weather Services forecast there particular area for severe weather, more rain, or more snow unless that is what the guidance is suggesting happens. You will never see us issue a map that calls for 12 inches of snow when guidance is only suggesting 3 inches of snow. That is wishcasting at its finest. All maps and forecasts will be backed by guidance. All blog posts, all Accu weather posts will be backed by guidance, historical records, charts, indices etc.
The goal & aim of Real Weather Services is to provide forecasts that you can trust and forecasts that you can depend upon.
We also recognize that not everyone is on the same level of experience with forecasting the weather. So this is where K.I.S.S comes in place. Keep it Synoptically Simple. So those with less knowledge can learn and grow in there experience with weather.
We do also acknowledge that some of the above may not be agreed on by all readers. However...most readers know all the above and realize that we try to keep weather & forecast weather with as much reality as possible.
Thank you for taking the time to read this! Have a great day!
So many that discuss the weather and follow the weather do not understand that it is these teleconnections that drive the weather. They are responsible for the weather that occurs on a daily basis. You will always see this happening with R.W.S. It is a must know Basic 101 weather.
In addition.. Real Weather Services will never twist or distort historical records and data to feed any kind of agenda. If the historical records say that a certain year was an El Nino year then R.W.S will acknowledge that. Weather history is important because weather patterns have a habit of repeating themselves. It is kind of like when one was in high school and had history class you probably heard your teacher say that its important to know the history so that we do NOT repeat and make the same mistakes. History in school was very important for the future. In weather, past history is very relevant to the future weather.
Models are to be used as guidance and are to be used to hone in and tune in on patterns that are being suggested but those patterns have to and must be in line with the teleconnections are in place. For example, if an operational run is showing a ridge on the east coast and warm air in place...but the teleconnections are showing a -NAO + PNA and - EPO then you know that the operational run is in error. Pattern recognition is something that is very important to Real Weather Services. Pattern recognition with teleconnection observance can save yourself the emotional up and downs when viewing the different model runs.
Nowcasting. Nowcasting is something that is very important to Real Weather Services because no matter how much a particular model seems to have a storm in its range ..the sensible weather does not always follow what the model says it should. Satellite observations, surface observations, pressure falls, water vapor..In other words we feel that looking at what is happening "now" is a more accurate way of forecasting any storm systems.
Of course the biggest pet peeve with Real Weather Services is that we do not tolerate any wishcasting. We do not tolerate any bittercasting. You will never see Real Weather Services forecast there particular area for severe weather, more rain, or more snow unless that is what the guidance is suggesting happens. You will never see us issue a map that calls for 12 inches of snow when guidance is only suggesting 3 inches of snow. That is wishcasting at its finest. All maps and forecasts will be backed by guidance. All blog posts, all Accu weather posts will be backed by guidance, historical records, charts, indices etc.
The goal & aim of Real Weather Services is to provide forecasts that you can trust and forecasts that you can depend upon.
We also recognize that not everyone is on the same level of experience with forecasting the weather. So this is where K.I.S.S comes in place. Keep it Synoptically Simple. So those with less knowledge can learn and grow in there experience with weather.
We do also acknowledge that some of the above may not be agreed on by all readers. However...most readers know all the above and realize that we try to keep weather & forecast weather with as much reality as possible.
Thank you for taking the time to read this! Have a great day!
November 19th Daily Weather Discussion
November 19th Daily Weather Discussion
November 18th High temp @ KABE was 56 degrees
Going to Get Wet & Stay Wet!
Today is going to feature mostly cloudy skies across the region with rain. What we have is Warm Air Advection moving thru the region with a return easterly flow off the ocean. This is going to produce rain across the region. Generally light rainfall up to about an inch depending where you are.
However..looking at latest radar returns it appears as though there could be a secondary trying to develop off the Carolina coast once again. This is something we will have to watch as it could enhance the rainfall along the east coast and in areas that took a beating with the remnants of IDA
Temperatures are going to be in the 40s in Maine to the mid and upper 50s elsewhere, In SNJ and south the upper 50s to mid and upper 60s are possible.
Do not be shocked if you do not reach your overnight low in the early morning hours of the 19th because with WWA temperatures in fact could rise and in some locations they are indeed doing that. Something to keep an eye on!
November 18th High temp @ KABE was 56 degrees
Going to Get Wet & Stay Wet!
Today is going to feature mostly cloudy skies across the region with rain. What we have is Warm Air Advection moving thru the region with a return easterly flow off the ocean. This is going to produce rain across the region. Generally light rainfall up to about an inch depending where you are.
However..looking at latest radar returns it appears as though there could be a secondary trying to develop off the Carolina coast once again. This is something we will have to watch as it could enhance the rainfall along the east coast and in areas that took a beating with the remnants of IDA
Temperatures are going to be in the 40s in Maine to the mid and upper 50s elsewhere, In SNJ and south the upper 50s to mid and upper 60s are possible.
Do not be shocked if you do not reach your overnight low in the early morning hours of the 19th because with WWA temperatures in fact could rise and in some locations they are indeed doing that. Something to keep an eye on!
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
November 19th - 21st Rainfall Potential
Low pressure currently over Arkansas will continue to move off towards the Great Lakes region and head thru the St Lawrence Valley. This will cause warm air advection over the region and with a return easterly flow off the ocean will result in generally a light rainfall across the region.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
November 18th Weather Discussion
November 18th Weather Discussion
November 17th high temperature @ KABE was 56 degrees..
More Rain On The Way!
Today is going to feature mainly clear skies from NY and north. However from PA and south...clouds will be on the increase and there may be some shower activity scattered about from parts of PA and into Nj before the end of the day. South of PA will also see some shower and rainfall activity. Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies across the region..especially as the day wears on.
Temperatures are generally going to be in the 40s to low 50s in Maine and into the upper 50s across the rest of the region!
November 17th high temperature @ KABE was 56 degrees..
More Rain On The Way!
Today is going to feature mainly clear skies from NY and north. However from PA and south...clouds will be on the increase and there may be some shower activity scattered about from parts of PA and into Nj before the end of the day. South of PA will also see some shower and rainfall activity. Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies across the region..especially as the day wears on.
Temperatures are generally going to be in the 40s to low 50s in Maine and into the upper 50s across the rest of the region!
Stepping Down Process...
November Pattern Thoughts For The Rest Of The Month..
Stepping Down Process...
There are two ways that we can get colder weather into the east & the northeast. The first would essentially be if there was a cold air supply to our north that has been building up ..The Arctic Oscillation crashes and essentially the rubber band snaps and the colder air drops down south and east into the USA. First entering the plains and then moving eastwards. That is not going to happen this time around. Why? At this present time there is no colder air to the north.
The 2nd way to get colder air into the region would be by a pattern change in which we get a - EPO ridge, -NAO & + PNA.
You see this occurring in the 00z GFS last night ( above)
When you get a negative EPO ridge this allows the colder air to filter across into Canada. Then when the AO crashes this colder air can then be filtered into the USA. This will probably happen in a step down process. This step down process has essentially already started with temperatures this week being back into the 50s instead of in the 60s & 70s. So consider this a transition period.
The most likely scenario that will occur is you will have a frontal passage with an area of low pressure that will head across the lakes. This will cause a cold front to come thru around Nov 25-27th period and this will then cause temperatures to step down some more. Temperatures will shift from seasonal to slightly above to seasonal to slightly below. A day or two in modification before the next FROPA come thru and we take another step down to below normal temperature regime. That then would lead us into the first week of December.
The ensembles have been consistent with this pattern change upcoming as well as the operational , though timing has been going back and forth. This has to be expected on the models whenever a pattern change occurs. The GFS for example has been showing a FROPA at times or a FROPA that develops a secondary or even some runs a coastal storm around Thanksgiving. During this time period will be a frontal passage that will bring the much anticipated pattern change.
So to sum things up:
Week #1 (current week) Seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures.
Week #2 (last week of November) Seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures
November 17th daily Weather Discussion
November 17th daily Weather Discussion
November 15th high temp @ KABE was 68 degrees
November 16th high temp @ KABE was 58 degrees
Stepping Down has begun!
Looking at the radar today shows some rainfall occurring over parts of PA. However..it does not appear to be actually hitting the ground but it is producing a good amount of cloudiness into the region. Basically today should be a mostly sunny day to the north and to the south in the PA area more in the way of clouds with sunshine...and I am going to place in a chance of an isolated shower in parts of PA..mainly central and west. This would just be in case the moisture is able to overcome what appears to be some dry air in place.
Temperatures today will be in the 40-50 range across maine and the rest of the area will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Pretty much a stepping down pattern compared to the upper 60s and some locales in the 70s of just a couple days ago..
November 15th high temp @ KABE was 68 degrees
November 16th high temp @ KABE was 58 degrees
Stepping Down has begun!
Looking at the radar today shows some rainfall occurring over parts of PA. However..it does not appear to be actually hitting the ground but it is producing a good amount of cloudiness into the region. Basically today should be a mostly sunny day to the north and to the south in the PA area more in the way of clouds with sunshine...and I am going to place in a chance of an isolated shower in parts of PA..mainly central and west. This would just be in case the moisture is able to overcome what appears to be some dry air in place.
Temperatures today will be in the 40-50 range across maine and the rest of the area will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Pretty much a stepping down pattern compared to the upper 60s and some locales in the 70s of just a couple days ago..
December 2009 Monthly Outlook
December Highlights
Potential Winter Storm in the first 10 days of the month
Potential turning sharply colder last two weeks of the month
Overall expecting this month to turn back to the pattern that has been dominant since May 09. That pattern was a + PNA - EPO and a neutral to negative NAO. I am also expecting this month to be rather volatile with times of above normal and times of below normal. There is also a possibility that this month ends up colder then what I have in the outlook. It all depends whether we go thru a stepping down process or whether the rubber band just snaps and the cold spills south and east. At this point I think we will go thru a stepping down process. I will explain more about this in my pattern update tomorrow where i cover the last two weeks of November...
Sunday, November 15, 2009
November 15th Weather Discussion
November 15th Weather Discussion
Remnants Of NOR-IDA still to effect NNE!
One final day for the remnants of Nor IDA to effect parts of the NE. In particular the state of Maine will continue to see rainfall at least up till around noon time and become more scattered and taper off there after. The rest of the region will be under cloudy skies with perhaps some mist type drizzle. Those clouds will start to clear though by afternoon..
Temperatures will be from the 50s in Maine to the 60s to near 70 in some locales elsewheres...
High temperature @ KABE for the 14th was 58 degrees...
Remnants Of NOR-IDA still to effect NNE!
One final day for the remnants of Nor IDA to effect parts of the NE. In particular the state of Maine will continue to see rainfall at least up till around noon time and become more scattered and taper off there after. The rest of the region will be under cloudy skies with perhaps some mist type drizzle. Those clouds will start to clear though by afternoon..
Temperatures will be from the 50s in Maine to the 60s to near 70 in some locales elsewheres...
High temperature @ KABE for the 14th was 58 degrees...
Saturday, November 14, 2009
November 14th Weather Discussion
November 14th Weather Discussion
November 12th high temp @ KABE was 50 degrees
November 13 high temp @ KABE was 55 degrees
Remnants Of IDA & Nor'Ester Still With Us!
This storm has wrecked havoc on the models. During the course of yesterday it developed another area of low pressure that is currently S of LI that was not modeled at all.. The high pressure that was to the NE that was providing the dry air had finally started to break down and allow the rainfall to start moving into the are from the SW....
Today we will continue to experience the remnants of this system with rain across the region. To the south in PA this rainfall should be much more lighter then to the north and into the NE. However...those of us to the south will remain under mostly cloudy skies with drizzle from time to time.
Temperatures across the region will be in the upper 40s to the upper 50s. Winds will continue to be gusty thru the morning hours. IN SNJ some more tidal flooding is likely. If you are in that area please be safe...
November 12th high temp @ KABE was 50 degrees
November 13 high temp @ KABE was 55 degrees
Remnants Of IDA & Nor'Ester Still With Us!
This storm has wrecked havoc on the models. During the course of yesterday it developed another area of low pressure that is currently S of LI that was not modeled at all.. The high pressure that was to the NE that was providing the dry air had finally started to break down and allow the rainfall to start moving into the are from the SW....
Today we will continue to experience the remnants of this system with rain across the region. To the south in PA this rainfall should be much more lighter then to the north and into the NE. However...those of us to the south will remain under mostly cloudy skies with drizzle from time to time.
Temperatures across the region will be in the upper 40s to the upper 50s. Winds will continue to be gusty thru the morning hours. IN SNJ some more tidal flooding is likely. If you are in that area please be safe...
Thursday, November 12, 2009
November 12th Weather Discussion
November 12th Weather Discussion
High temp November 11th was 52 degrees @ KABE
Remnants of IDA Still Going!
Todays forecast again is quite a tricky forecast as the remnants of IDA are further to the north then what has been forecasted. The forecasting challenge is the high pressure to the north of the system that has fed into the atmosphere some very dry air. The question is...can this rainfall make it far enough up the coast and overcome the drier air. At this point I believe that can happen but not until the high pressure starts to move off to the east. Meanwhile, the best chances for rain are going to be from SE PA and south of there they will be dealing with heavier rains.
Forecast high temperatures once again will be in the mid 40s to the mid 50s
High temp November 11th was 52 degrees @ KABE
Remnants of IDA Still Going!
Todays forecast again is quite a tricky forecast as the remnants of IDA are further to the north then what has been forecasted. The forecasting challenge is the high pressure to the north of the system that has fed into the atmosphere some very dry air. The question is...can this rainfall make it far enough up the coast and overcome the drier air. At this point I believe that can happen but not until the high pressure starts to move off to the east. Meanwhile, the best chances for rain are going to be from SE PA and south of there they will be dealing with heavier rains.
Forecast high temperatures once again will be in the mid 40s to the mid 50s
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
November 11 Weather Discussion
November 11 Weather Discussion
November 10 high temp @ KABE was 67 degrees
Ode To Ida Remnants!
Perhaps the biggest question for today and the next 2 days will be what is going to happen with IDA's remnants. This presents a very complex and challenging situation as if one were to look at the radar it would appear that the remnants could give the forecast area a good soaking. I think that would be the case if it was not for the high pressure area that is building in over the northeast. This high pressure is allowing colder air to seep into the area which is drying out the atmosphere across the region so that as Idas remnants move NE ..it has to much dry air to overcome and is just not reaching the ground but giving off a nice virga display.
So I think the best chance for any precipitation north of 30 N would be perhaps along the southern tier of PA into southern NJ. South of there it is an all out rain fest. We will mainly be under cloudy skies and run the risk of perhaps a shower..but at this point I think those chances are low.
Temperatures across the region are going to be cooler today as a cold front moved thru the region late yesterday. Essentially they will be in the lower 40s to lower to perhaps middle 50s across the region depending where you reside. Basically your low temperature(from the early morning hours) might end up being your high for the day as temperatures appear to remain steady during the day..
November 10 high temp @ KABE was 67 degrees
Ode To Ida Remnants!
Perhaps the biggest question for today and the next 2 days will be what is going to happen with IDA's remnants. This presents a very complex and challenging situation as if one were to look at the radar it would appear that the remnants could give the forecast area a good soaking. I think that would be the case if it was not for the high pressure area that is building in over the northeast. This high pressure is allowing colder air to seep into the area which is drying out the atmosphere across the region so that as Idas remnants move NE ..it has to much dry air to overcome and is just not reaching the ground but giving off a nice virga display.
So I think the best chance for any precipitation north of 30 N would be perhaps along the southern tier of PA into southern NJ. South of there it is an all out rain fest. We will mainly be under cloudy skies and run the risk of perhaps a shower..but at this point I think those chances are low.
Temperatures across the region are going to be cooler today as a cold front moved thru the region late yesterday. Essentially they will be in the lower 40s to lower to perhaps middle 50s across the region depending where you reside. Basically your low temperature(from the early morning hours) might end up being your high for the day as temperatures appear to remain steady during the day..
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
November 10th Weather Discussion
November 10th Weather Discussion
Ode To IDA...
November 7th High @ KABE was 54 degrees
November 8th high temp @ KABE was 68 degrees
November 9th high temp @ KABE was 66 degrees
A cold front will be making its way towards the region today so this is going to present the region with partly to mostly cloudy skies with the chance of some light shower activity in PA into Nj and into perhaps NYC by evening time.. A very careful eye has to be kept on the remnant of IDA. I should have a much clearer picture on what happens with her moisture sometime later in the day..
Temperatures across the region will be in the 40s to 50s in Maine to the mid 50s to lower 60s elsewhere...to perhaps some mid 60s south of PA...
Ode To IDA...
November 7th High @ KABE was 54 degrees
November 8th high temp @ KABE was 68 degrees
November 9th high temp @ KABE was 66 degrees
A cold front will be making its way towards the region today so this is going to present the region with partly to mostly cloudy skies with the chance of some light shower activity in PA into Nj and into perhaps NYC by evening time.. A very careful eye has to be kept on the remnant of IDA. I should have a much clearer picture on what happens with her moisture sometime later in the day..
Temperatures across the region will be in the 40s to 50s in Maine to the mid 50s to lower 60s elsewhere...to perhaps some mid 60s south of PA...
Saturday, November 7, 2009
November 7th Weather Discussion
November 7th Weather Discussion
Recovering Temps On The Way!
November 6th high temperature was 45 degrees @ KABE and we had a trace of Snow
Today is going to be a mostly sunny day! A very pleasant fall winter day with temperatures still on the chilly side but moderating from where they were today! There really is not much to say about the weather today other then sunshine and pleasant.
Temperatures in the 30s to 40s across Maine . They will be the really cold spot for the day. Elsewhere across the region temperatures will be from the upper 40s to the upper 50s!
Recovering Temps On The Way!
November 6th high temperature was 45 degrees @ KABE and we had a trace of Snow
Today is going to be a mostly sunny day! A very pleasant fall winter day with temperatures still on the chilly side but moderating from where they were today! There really is not much to say about the weather today other then sunshine and pleasant.
Temperatures in the 30s to 40s across Maine . They will be the really cold spot for the day. Elsewhere across the region temperatures will be from the upper 40s to the upper 50s!
Friday, November 6, 2009
November 6th Weather Discussion
November 6th Weather Discussion
November 5th high temp @ KABE was 52 degrees
Winter Weather in Some Areas!
Today will be a mostly sunny day across the southern regions to a partly to mostly cloudy day across the northern regions with showers of rain and snow thru early afternoon possible from a S/W moving thru the region. It is going to be another cold day across the area and overnight could perhaps be the coldest air so far of the fall season.
Daytime highs will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s in Maine to the 40-50 range elsewhere in the Northeast! Temps overnight will be going into the 20s in a large portion of the viewing area. Lower further north!
November 5th high temp @ KABE was 52 degrees
Winter Weather in Some Areas!
Today will be a mostly sunny day across the southern regions to a partly to mostly cloudy day across the northern regions with showers of rain and snow thru early afternoon possible from a S/W moving thru the region. It is going to be another cold day across the area and overnight could perhaps be the coldest air so far of the fall season.
Daytime highs will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s in Maine to the 40-50 range elsewhere in the Northeast! Temps overnight will be going into the 20s in a large portion of the viewing area. Lower further north!
Thursday, November 5, 2009
November 5th Weather Discussion
November 5th Weather Discussion
November 4th High temperature was 49 degrees @ KABE...
Its cold...but it will not last!
Today is going to be a mainly cloudy day across the region with the chance of showers and elevation snows in the Northeast. This due to a clipper passing thru the region and a coastal that will form offshore and stay mainly off shore. These two systems will keep the weather unsettled across the region but precipitation will be mainly on the light side...
Temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s from Maine thru the interior NE into interior Pa. Along the coast of SNE and points south and east will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s with some areas seeing temperatures in the upper 50s. In particular SE PA and south of PA...
November 4th High temperature was 49 degrees @ KABE...
Its cold...but it will not last!
Today is going to be a mainly cloudy day across the region with the chance of showers and elevation snows in the Northeast. This due to a clipper passing thru the region and a coastal that will form offshore and stay mainly off shore. These two systems will keep the weather unsettled across the region but precipitation will be mainly on the light side...
Temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s from Maine thru the interior NE into interior Pa. Along the coast of SNE and points south and east will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s with some areas seeing temperatures in the upper 50s. In particular SE PA and south of PA...
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
November 4th Weather Discussion
November 4th Weather Discussion
November 3rd High temp @ KABE was 60 degrees
A Step Back Down!
Today is going to be a rather pleasant day across the region. Clouds will start to increase across the western regions later in the day and then spread eastward. For the most part though we will be under partly sunny skies.
By early evening clouds will thicken up and there will be a chance of some rain and snowshowers moving in across the region.
Temperatures today will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s from Maine into Interior NY, In SNE upper 40s to lower 50s and that will extend into interior PA. Low to mid 50s from SE PA and points southwards...
November 3rd High temp @ KABE was 60 degrees
A Step Back Down!
Today is going to be a rather pleasant day across the region. Clouds will start to increase across the western regions later in the day and then spread eastward. For the most part though we will be under partly sunny skies.
By early evening clouds will thicken up and there will be a chance of some rain and snowshowers moving in across the region.
Temperatures today will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s from Maine into Interior NY, In SNE upper 40s to lower 50s and that will extend into interior PA. Low to mid 50s from SE PA and points southwards...
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
November 3rd Weather Discussion
November 3rd Weather Discussion
Another cool day on tap but it will only get cooler before week is out!
Today is going to be a mainly cloudy day across the northern parts of the region from about NY state north. These clouds will bring the chance of showers and perhaps some snowshowers to the region. This all due to a warm front moving thru the region ...followed by a cold front. To the south of that region skies will be partly to mostly cloudy and there is also the chance of a shower as well but the chance will be greater further to the north. Over the southern regions do not be surprised if you see some sunshine thru out the course of the day.
Temperatures will be in the 40s for the most part across the state of Maine , VT, NH and NY State. SNE will be in the 50s and those 50s will extend south and east into interior Pa . East central PA into SE PA upper 50s to lower 60s and south of PA lower to middle 60s.
The high temperature for KABE Nov 2nd was 57 degrees
Another cool day on tap but it will only get cooler before week is out!
Today is going to be a mainly cloudy day across the northern parts of the region from about NY state north. These clouds will bring the chance of showers and perhaps some snowshowers to the region. This all due to a warm front moving thru the region ...followed by a cold front. To the south of that region skies will be partly to mostly cloudy and there is also the chance of a shower as well but the chance will be greater further to the north. Over the southern regions do not be surprised if you see some sunshine thru out the course of the day.
Temperatures will be in the 40s for the most part across the state of Maine , VT, NH and NY State. SNE will be in the 50s and those 50s will extend south and east into interior Pa . East central PA into SE PA upper 50s to lower 60s and south of PA lower to middle 60s.
The high temperature for KABE Nov 2nd was 57 degrees
Nov 5-7 Clipper Potential
An Alberta Clipper will be dropping down from Canada. Due to the fast flow that is currently in place across the US...this clipper will not really be able to dig and intensify and carve out a amplified trough across the east. Nevertheless, this clipper will move across the region and then transfer its energy to a developing low off the SNE coast. This will be a Miller B storm system..however, by the time the storm actually is able to develop and intensify rapidly it will be a little to late. Never the less it will bring some rain and snow showers across the region.. Potential for a couple inches across portions of the NE..
Sunday, November 1, 2009
November 2nd Weather Discussion
November 2nd Weather Discussion
Daytime high temp for KABE Oct 30th was 59 degrees
Daytime high temp for KABE on Oct 31st was 67 degrees
November 1st high temp at KABE was 55 degrees
Transient cold shot before we modify!
Today is going to be a rather pleasant day but also a rather chilly day. Chilly that is if you got use to those mild temperatures that were in place for a couple days. Today will be more seasonable compared to previous days with majority of the area under mostly sunny skies. Its possible that there could be some isolated showers along the extreme immediate east coast from NJ into SNE but i would put the chances at less then 10%...
Temperatures are going to be in the 40s in the state of Maine to the 50s elsewhere...
Daytime high temp for KABE Oct 30th was 59 degrees
Daytime high temp for KABE on Oct 31st was 67 degrees
November 1st high temp at KABE was 55 degrees
Transient cold shot before we modify!
Today is going to be a rather pleasant day but also a rather chilly day. Chilly that is if you got use to those mild temperatures that were in place for a couple days. Today will be more seasonable compared to previous days with majority of the area under mostly sunny skies. Its possible that there could be some isolated showers along the extreme immediate east coast from NJ into SNE but i would put the chances at less then 10%...
Temperatures are going to be in the 40s in the state of Maine to the 50s elsewhere...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)