00z Suite 1-20-2010 Model Update

This post will be edited as the models continue to come out! We start off with the 00z NAM which continues with the theme of keeping this to the south. Is this a plausible solution? In one way ..it could be plausible, in the sense that because of blocking this low pressure can only go so far north. However..HPC considered the NAM and outlier at 12 Z and this run basically shows the same thing as 12 Z NAM showed so that raises a red flag to the NAM solution.

Next up will be the 00z GFS at 10:30 PM

Pretty much as anticipated and expected here at R.W.S the 00z GFS came further north from its earlier runs and also further north then the 00z NAM. The GFS is beginning to recognize that it was feeding to much energy off to the east and is now sending it more on a NE trajectory.

The 00z ECM came in further north then its 12 Z run. 

00z GGEM is also further north then what the 00z NAM was ..So basically all signs are pointing to a further north system then what the 00z NAM would indicate. 

This pretty much spells out that the 00z NAM is an outlier compared to the rest of the 00z model guidance...

Now..I have been saying all along that this system can only come so far to the north. This is due to the blocking that is in place. Generally this system should follow the frontal boundary that is laid out to the south...Current thinking is that the furthest north that this system should be able to proceed is the Delmarva, before being turned off to the ENE...

Depending on how much GOM this system can tap into as it moves across from west to east will determine how much QPF the region can see from this system. Current thinking right now is that the heaviest snows will be from MD Ne across South Central Pa into East Central Pa into Central NJ. Current thinking right now would be for a 2-4 or 3-6 type event..but if a more north track can prevail ..like as far north as the delmarva then we could be looking at higher QPF which would result in higher snowfall potential.

This is one heck of a way to run a January thaw! Yes, I do realize that we have been warmer the past few days...but this goes to show that a January Thaw does not mean that it can not still snow!