Real Weather Services Weather Alert
January 25th 2010
Time: 2:00 AM
Real Weather Services is continuing a special Weather Alert statement for a potential snowstorm for the time frame of January 29th to January 31st. The system which is now moving thru the great lakes region will send a cold front thru the region during the day tomorrow. This system and its cold front becomes the pattern changer and will set the stage for much colder weather in the wakes of a system coming out of the GOM and the SE States.
The January 25th 2010 foreign models agree with the synoptic set up and essentially on the track of the area of low pressure. This area of low pressure will encounter blocking due to a Bermuda High on its eastern side and will want to take the path of least resistance. With a high pressure North of NY State..this will mean the path of the low will be between that High pressure to the North and the high pressure creating the blocking in the atlantic to the east. This would send a low pressure system over the Gulf Stream roughly 50-100 miles off the east coast moving up towards the benchmark.
Real Weather Services believes that this storm as we get closer in time could trend stronger and increase QPF across the region.
The 00z ECM actually is more amplified then its 12 Z run which brought the system much more to my line of thinking. I am not worried about the QPF amounts that this is showing because this system will be coming from the GOM and also tapping into the Atlantic because of the Gulf stream.
One potential to the ECM is the 00z UKMET in that it is more amplified then the ECM was at a further south location. So what I believe we should see if further amplification in future runs of the ECM.
The GFS continues to be suppressing this system to the south and to the east but I believe that is due to its progressive nature and also its model bias. The GFS should correct itself as we get closer to the event.
Stay Tuned for further updates on this situation!
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