Real Weather Services Special Alert #3

Time: 2:30 AM

Date: January 26th 2010

Dates Effected: January 29-31st

Summary of 25 (00z-18z) 26th (00z) model runs..

Model runs for the period of the 25th consisted of the ECM remaining relatively steadfast with further north QPF then previous run. The GFS ever since its 6z run has been trending towards the North with the QPF and its ensembles also support the operational as well.

This brings us to the 26th 00z Model runs in which the UK/GGEM/ECM have shifted to the south and have the Polar Vortex too strong and too far south. The GFS remains consistent with its prior three runs and brings more significant precipitation into the eastern seaboard and slightly inland.

Here at Real Weather Services , a couple rules that we like to follow is the following: 

1. 1 run does not make a trend.

2. Final solutions will not be converged upon until 48-72 hours out.

3. Is the energy on land yet? If not the energy is in poor data area.

4. Solutions for actual storms are a blend of all the models (guidance)

5. Consistency is important when looking at the models.

So where does this all lead to with the current thinking at this point and time? The fact that we are still 4-5 days out from this system and the energy is not over data rich areas..the models will continue to show scenario to different scenario. If you think about it ..The GFS has already shown all the suppressed scenarios..however the other models like the GGEM/UK/ECM have been showing decent hits across the region. So ..at Real Weather Services, the thinking is that the other models are still going thru the cycle that every storm system goes thru which is to show just about every possible scenario until we are closer to the time of the storm. 

Being that this was just one run of the foreign models to show this ..it can not be considered a trend until it would be followed up by another run. Also,if those models ensembles come in further north this would throw up a red flag to those solutions as well.

So for now, Real Weather Services is going to continue with the model that has been the most consistent which is the GFS.  However..Real Weather Services acknowledges the runs that have gone south this evening. 

Alot of what is going to happen is going to come down to the Polar Vortex and how strong and how far south it is. So far this winter season on the global models the Polar Vortex have been modeled too strong and too far south beyond 72 hours. Which is still the range that we are in. 

So with that said ..Real Weather Services continues to think that the potential is there for a significant winter storm across portions of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. However..also acknowledges that there is the possibility that this potential can also be confined to VA and points south. 

Stay Tuned For Further Updates!