A cold front will be approaching the region by about 18 Z tomorrow. This cold front will be coming into a very warm and humid air mass. Temperatures will be from 80-90 degrees and the dew points will be once again in the range of 65-75. We will have ample shear in the mid levels of at least 35-40 knots and ample shear in the lower levels along the range of 35-50 knots. A mid level impulse will develop along this cold front as well..at the same time another S/W will move across Michigan into SE Canada and then eastwards into the State of Maine.
What we have going for us...
Western Central Atlantic Ridge (WCAR)
Mean trough positioned over the Great Lakes
Warm & Humid Air Mass
Dewpoints of 65-75
Shear of 35-50 knots
CAPE of 1000-2000
LI of -2 to -4
What could go wrong? Cloud cover could cause the area to not destabalize as quick. Although, it seems like this season cloud cover has not made much of a difference. The more sunshine we have the better the destablization. System could be to "water loaded" which would keep the storms from becoming to strong.
Any storms will contain very heavy rainfall. Some of the region already has flash flood watches in place with Precipitable Water being along the range of 1-2 inches. Besides very heavy rainfall, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and the potential for a few tornados as well. Hail is possible as well..however..expect more wind damage reports then hail.
With all the above in mind here is the map..
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