Pattern Update covering thru the first week of August 2009...

Pattern Update covering thru the first week of August 2009...

While i do agree with weather in high definition in regards to the WCAR moving east...I believe this is going to be a temporary move. The WCAR will actually become the CAR...Meanwhile , toughing that has been over the western Great Lakes will move slightly to the east over the eastern Great Lakes However..later in the period this troughing looks to lift up into more of CANADA which will at first allow the flow to become more zonal. and there after expect the ridge that has been in the centtral part of the country to progress to the eastern part of the country as troughing comes on to the west coast. In other words, expecting the high pressure that has been providing the hot weather in Seattle etc, to move to the east and then essentially join forces with the CAR...
The reason i do not believe that we will have any sustained troughing effecting the east is because 

A. The EPO never goes actually negative.. It actually goes about as low as 0.5. Applying the same standard as the NAO when its in neutral which is -0.5 to +0.5, this would mean that the EPO actually stays in neutral territory, which makes sense when looking at the NAO which also never leaves the neutral zone..
So essentially I am expecting seasonal to slightly above seasonal departures to continue along the east coast alon with the humidity factor..though that will lessen up about midway into the period. Once the trough that has been centered over the Western Great Lakes moves to the east..then the areas on the Western Side of the Northeast would experience more cooler temperatures because of being closer to the mean trough. However, once the trough lifts into central Canada..the region as a whole (Northeast) should start to once again step back into the warmer side of summer weather.