May 1st Severe Weather Potential

A area of low pressure will be developing across Southwest TX at the same time a cold front which will become quasi stationary will be draped from SW TX off towards the NE across the Midwest and will be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms as a trough advances towards the east.

Meanwhile the dry line will be also located over SW TX and will be the focal point for severe storms of which there is the potential for a Tornado to occur..

Lets look at the severe parameters that will be in place ...

CAPE will range from 1000 to as much as 3000 depending on where you are located ..

Plenty of Lift in the atmosphere with the lift index as low as negative 10

Shear will be sufficient at 40 knots or greater..

Temperatures will be warm to hot ahead of the front with temps ranging from the 70s to temperatures in the 90s.

EHI is at one or above which is indicative of supercell potential and this is mainly across SW TX and south central TX..though this does not line up with the greatest Helicity we do think it may be enough to spark a tornado or two across the area from SW TX to SC Tx.... 

Otherwise the severe threats will be limited to winds and hail across the rest of the severe zone. Majority of the afternoon should be precipitation free across TX as the storms and showers would arrive towards evening time...