Wednesday Perhaps The Most Severe Potential

We are going to start off by looking at what we think current conditions should be like at 18Z tomorrow afternoon. Now keep in mind we have been talking about this since the 25th of the month when we posted the map on our facebook page. 
We have one low pressure over Southeast Colorado from there extends a cold front that goes back to the west south west and another front that spreads to the north to a low pressure system over the Dakota region. From there we have a warm front that spreads east northeast into the great Lakes region and swings back south into the Northeast region. We also have a dry line south from the low over SE CO that goes directly due south.. It will be these low pressure areas , the associated fronts and the dry line that will be responsible for what could be an active day across the region.
One thing we will continue to have in place is extremely warm air across the region with temperatures in the 80s..

Dewpoints are going to continue to be also quite high across the region with 60s and 70s making it feel even warmer then it actually is and adding moisture into the atmosphere.

Now to the actual severe weather Parameters and we are going to be taking a look at the CAPE, SWEAT, Lift Index, EHI, Helicity and the Wind Shear.. We are going to start off with the shear first..

Shear will be 30-50 knots which is sufficient enough for severe weather to occur,  

Lift Index is as negative as negative 8 ..So there will be plenty of lift in the atmosphere.
Now on to the more important indexes that have to be taken into consideration, That would be the CAPE, SWEAT, EHI and Helicity..

CAPE 

CAPE ranges from 1000 to about 3000 which is more then sufficient for severe weather. 

EHI you can see is quite high from locations In Southern TX to North Central Tx thru western OK and West Central Kansas into Central Nebraska ..

Allocating with these same regions is the Helicity 

We also have the SWEAT index lining right up with these same regions...

So we think that the best chances for tornados are going to be in the areas that we mentioned above. Outside these areas the main threats will be winds and hail. 
We are not going to go with a slight risk or severe zone in the Northeast as the guidance we are using suggests that there is no CAPE into these regions..especially the ECM so anything there would be Garden Variety and just local severe isolated..
Remember if you are in a path of a Tornado on the ground to take cover and shelter immediately and pay attention to your NWS outlets!