May 9th Severe Potential

Looking at the surface map we see the front is relatively stationary that has provided the severe weather yesterday on the 8th. By thursday evening this front should be splitting OK in half and trailing to the SW from there..

It will be this front that will once again be the cause of severe weather and rainfall once again. Looking at the severe parameters..
CAPE 

CAPE is quite high with anywhere from 1000 all the way up to about 3500.

Temperatures will be relatively in the 70s and 80s across the highlighted severe zone...

Dew points will generally be in the 50s and 60s indicating that there will be enough moisture in the atmosphere..

Wind shear will be sufficient but marginal with 30-40 knots generally being the case across the severe zone.

Where we become a little concerned is with the EHI which is relatively high in SE and Eastern OK and parts of Northern Tx. 

And the Storm Relative Helicity is also greatest over the same general area of eastern OK and SE Oklahoma. If there is going to be a tornado chance today this is where we would put it with a 5% risk. 

Plenty of lift in the atmosphere with anywhere from negative 4 to negative 8.

We expect storms to relatively blossom between 1 PM and 4 PM across the area in Texas. The main threats would be winds and large Hail but with the EHI on the high side extending into Northern TX we place a 2% Tor risk south of OK. Even after the storms rains may continue into the overnight across TX..