With the cut off low pressure moving up along the east coast and opening up that allows the pattern to start moving again and introduces a chance of severe weather again across parts of the southern plains.
We have a cold front that will be pressing off to the east from the west and an area of low pressure and from that low pressure extends a stationary front off towards the east. It will be this low pressure area and this cold front that will bring the chance of severe weather along with rain and Garden Variety type storms across the region.
We have decided to not include Texas in this outlook because the latest NAM keeps that region void of any precipitation.
One thing for certain is that the region is going to be quite warm to hot with temperatures from the 70s to the 90s .
CAPE will be on the order of 1000 + according to the latest NAM
Lift Index will be in the negative 4 to negative 8 range depending on where you are..
Dewpoints will be in the 60s so we will have a return of moisture in the atmosphere..
Shear is marginal at best with 30-40 knots and some locations even less then that..
EHI suggests we could have supercells in Oklahoma and into Kansas..
Greatest Helicity is not aligned with the Greatest EHI so the tornado chance would be at 2% or less into Oklahoma and Kansas.
The main severe threats today will be winds and hail with any storms that do pop up.
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