Thursday, May 30, 2013

Widespread Outbreak Wed, Another Thursday ..Could Friday as well?

Low pressure over Oklahoma with a cold front trailing northwards to a low pressure that is located over the Dakotas. This is the scenario expected to be at 8 AM in the morning.  This cold front is having a tough time making its way eastward but is doing so slowly each day. The reason for the hard time is because of the ridge that has built in over the east producing the very warm to hot weather with temperatures in the lower 90s.  You can see this ridge indicated by the high pressure off the east coast. So the system is forced more or less to move to the NE trying to take the path of least resistance. 
While the day is not over yet we once again have had widespread reports of severe weather all facets of severe were involved..
210 total reports on the day so far with the day still not over and this would qualify as the second day of the outbreak of severe weather. First being wed..second being thursday and now we head into friday and the question is due we have a third day that would qualify as an outbreak?

We think the answer continues to be yes it will be another widespread severe active day..

Firstly, temperatures once again are going to be in the 70s to 90s depending on where you are located..

Dew Points once again are going to be in the 60s and 70s indicating that the atmosphere will have moisture needed for severe weather. These storms will produce very heavy rains in addition to large hail and damaging winds. 
Wind shear is probably a bit more impressive today with the wind shear from 30 knots to as much as 60 knots across the region.
Convective Available potential energy or CAPE which is needed ingredient to feed fuel into any storms will range from 1000 to as much as 4000 down into the OK area.
Lift index will also be in place with lift index as low as negative 10 or greater.
EHI is highest once again from OK into Ark into Missouri and above 1 in further north locations as well . This is an indication of where the greatest chance for tornadic activity can be .
Helicity is also supportive of supercells in the aforementioned areas. And finally the SWEAT index which will be posted next is allocated with in these same general areas...
SWEAT INDEX
So with the warm to hot air in place, a trigger marching east to Northeast across the country ..severe parameters in place ..we once again expect today to be a very active day and could be just as widespread as the past two days have been. 
We remind you that if you are in the path of a tornado warned storm to seek shelter immediately until the storm has passed. If you are outside the areas that were mentioned above as tornadic activity possible then your main threats are winds and hail along with heavy rains.
Once again be safe and keep your eye to the sky when out and about! 

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