Severe Parameters
We are looking at CAPE values on the guidance from 500-4000.
Lift index actually as low as -10 on the NAM..
Temperatures are going to be from the 70s to as high as 100 perhaps + that if the NAM is correct in locations such as TX...
Speaking of TX we have them in the region of severe but all in all that region should be capped as the 700 mb level is dry as a bone. As a refresher this is what we use to look at to see if moisture can make it down to the ground...And in this case all the moisture should stay North of that region despite the high parameters that are in place..
Shear will be ample with 35-60 knots in place across the region..
Across the rest of the region there will also be a CAP in place with Westerly flow over the region. This will likely cause any severe weather to be caused by Warm Air Advection.
Mid Level lapse rates will be 6.0 + so we think that the greatest severe threat that will be in place would be Hail..However...with the severe being dependent on Warm Air Advection and the westerly flow this could cause more of isolated severe hail. Overall we are not seeing this as a major severe weather threat day!
At the surface low pressure and associated trough will be dropping Southeast out of Minnesota with its attending Warm front which will provide the Warm Air Advection push across the region. By Wednesday evening this low pressure should be located over NE Iowa with the warm front draping SSE ..
Again...not really impressed about severe weather chances ..leaning more towards isolated severe then anything else
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