April 2nd Severe Weather Outlook

Alright the guidance tonight such as the NAM is throwing some pretty off the hook parameters across the zone highlighted above.. SREF is also pretty much on the bullish side but we are going to look at the NAM first and then the GFS…

NAM CAPE 500 to as great as 4500 depending where you are located..

NAM Lift Index 0 to negative 11 indicating great lift across the region highlighted above.

EHI is from 1 to 2 + less north Texas- Greatest South TX…

Shear Surface to 500 mb is 40 + knots which is more then sufficient ..

Surface Temps in the 70s to 80s

Looking at the GFS it has the following Parameters

GFS CAPE 1000-4000 depending where you are located

Lift Index – 4 to –8

Lapse rates are 7.0-8.0

Shear 25-40 knots..

There is no doubt about the severe parameters on the guidance being off the hook. Problem lies in the timing of the storms..

NAM essentially keeps things dry until after the 11 PM our across TX..so basically would be over night severe weather potential..

GFS however starts to more or less develop the storms between 2 PM and 8 PM EST..

At the surface we are anticipating one low pressure system to be over Iowa from that low a cold front should trail to the south southwest to another low over N Texas panhandle region with a cold front trailing to the south of that low pressure area. This cold front by Monday evening should still be west of San Antonio TX..

Storms will develop out ahead of this cold front..and this cold front should cross Jacks County by 12 Z Tuesday morning.

Now with these parameters that are in place we do think that the potential exists for all three types of severe weather..

We think a general 2% to 5% tornado risk will be in place in TX (less north-Greatest south)

We also think that the threat will exist for large hail and wind…

Please stay tuned for more updates and we will be following and tracking this till the event is past..

Keep your NOAA weather radio on hand as well.

Remember that if severe weather is expected to effect your area to follow your regions safety plan and if your region does not have one make sure you have one of your own in place to follow.

These storms will also contain heavy rain so be careful not to drive or walk thru any standing water because you never know how deep it is..