Severe Potential April 9th 2012

CAPE 500-2000 depending where you are...
Lift Index is 0 to -8 depending where you are
Mid Level Lapse Rates 6.5 +
Shear 25-40 knots..Highest across Oklahoma and East TX..
EHI is + 1 across OK on the western side and the eastern side..
Temperatures in the 70s and 80s
Dew points 50s and 60s
Majority of the daytime looks to be dry across the vast majority of TX and OK. Anything prior to 00z is going to be spotty and isolated..
Specific to Northern Central TX by Wichita Falls area ..700 mb RH is between 10-20 % . This tells us how much dry air is in the 700 mb level and this gives an indication that that particular region may just end up with out seeing any precipitation ..This is the case on both the NAM/GFS and more then likely why the SREF only has low risk severe in that region...
Here is the thing...there is really NO trigger for this severe weather. When we think of a trigger we think of a cold front..That is not the case... What we are dealing with is a warm front that is draped or stalled if you want to say across western Oklahoma to east of Wichita Falls region and into eastern TX. A weak low does develop over SE Colorado and drop southwards ..with the warm front essentially stalling it will become stationary.
It is this frontal boundary that will serve as the focus for severe weather.
The map above indicates where we think the worst of the severe with tornado potential will be based on the shear and the EHI. The best time for those will be between 00z and 09 Z...