Severe Weather Outlook For Friday/Saturday... 4/13/-4/14/12

Severe Weather Outlook For Friday/Saturday...
We have three zones once again
1. The checkered red zone we think is going to be the greatest area for tornado's to occur. Now today (Friday) Iowa is not so much under that category but would be more for the potential on Saturday.
2. The Red colored zone is where we think the area will remain CAPPED . 700 mb Relative Humidity is at its lowest and this is one level we look at in the winter to see whether or not precipitation is able to make it to the ground or not. The drier the level the more difficulty. If this CAP were to weaken then there is the possibility of some severe weather but mainly winds and or Hail would be the likely hood..
3. The Gray area which is the low risk zone for winds and or hail as being the primary threat..
So lets look at the parameters in place...
CAPE 500-3000 depending where you reside..
Lift Index 0 to about negative 10
Lapse rates 5.5 to about 7.5 depending where you reside
Shear 30 to as much as 60 knots in place
EHI around 1 in places for Friday (other then Iowa) Saturday EHI is 3 or greater....depending where you reside... (this is also the greater severe threat day)
The focus as you can see we have extending further north then what the SPC has. This is due to the EHI in place further north..
At the surface a low pressure is over western Nebraska and from this area of low pressure a warm front extends south and then east across E TX slicing Louisiana in half and also a cold front that extends S and then west thru the SE corner of NM..
This low pressure will slowly lift off to the east NE which will cause the cold front to slowly move towards the east.
Dry line as of 6 Z will be located essentially in between where these fronts meet at the low pressure and then head to the south from that starting point.
Majority of the storms and moisture will be associated closer to the low pressure area where along the front itself in the south since it is mainly a CAPPED environment ..thru Saturday they should essentially stay dry or at the most have some scattered showers.. Again..if the CAP were to break there would be severe weather further south but at this point and time we do not see that occurring thru Saturday..
Should anything need to be updated for Saturday we will do so later tonight before 2 AM...
We do not think that today will be a significant tornado outbreak..There will be some tornados but no outbreak expected. Saturday..there could be more tornado's expected but the area is already highlighted where the potential will lie!