Aside from the 6 Z run early in the day yesterday…since the start of the 00z run on 11/20 we have had 4 runs show the two storms in less then a week for the first week of December. Tonight the GFS once again has shown both storms. Details at this range are fruitless to get concerned over.
Storm #1
Then there is storm #2
Now, the pattern that we appear to be heading into is indeed conducive for a storm to occur.
1. You have the blocking around Greenland.
2. Your thanksgiving storm turns into the new Polar Vortex.
3. We are in a parade of waves coming in off the pacific.
4. The models are showing a retrograding GOA low ..heading towards the Aleutians.
5. A strongly –NAO which is being progged..
#5 is the reason that I would not be completely sold on the track of storm #2 as a strong negative NAO can lead to suppression.
And yet another part of the pattern is the progged value of the AO is expected to go quite negative..which has not been this negative since 2009.
So this spells a emptying of cold air so to speak into the US with the PNA going towards neutral & a negative NAO ..if we have the active wave train this could potentially lead to a snowy start to december.
Stay tuned for more on this developing winter story!
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