The Hype Continues From Some “Pros”

In any case much of the nation southeast of a line from Amarillo to Albany NY will have their coldest 30 day period of the winter starting now. I made a statement with the first winter forecast that at the end of December, we may be very close to where we were last year at the same time, but all this will fade the rest of the winter.
But there is some great potential in the upcoming 3-4 for much of the nation north I -40 and the threat of a storm of blockbuster category along the east coast is on the table, especially between the 5th and 15th.

First off if this is considered the coldest 30 day period it is not getting off to that good of a start.

As one can plainly see temperatures are not all that far from seasonal levels and if anything it is slightly below normal. Of course we know that JB has been toting the horn that if we do not get snow and cold between Thanksgiving and Christmas essentially then we should expect a torch. Of course we here @ R.W.S do not take that stance and you can refer to the winter outlook which is linked in the upper right hand corner of the blog.

However..what I want to talk about mainly is the threat for a blockbuster event along the east coast. This is the words that started this post to begin with. So lets look at the first threat..This would fall in the December 5-7th time frame.

What we have here on the ECM is a low pressure moving from Iowa (central) to Grand Rapids Michigan and then getting pushed SE by confluence and blocking across PA moving SE and then redeveloping off the SNJ coast and then moving slowly to the ENE as it intensifies. Temperatures appear to be in the 30s ..so there could be boundary layer issues for the cities and along the coast..however inland seems to be in a better scenario. At the most the 12 Z ECM would be showing a light to perhaps low end moderate snow event for places cold enough in all layers to receive snow!

GFS on the other hand is similar at the start of the time frame..

However..it shears that system out and instead concentrates on energy over the Atlantic ocean

And then retrogrades that area of low pressure to give portions of the NE a snowstorm. However..the GFS is the only model that is showing this type of solution.

However..if you go beyond this time frame there is no apparent threat on the table outside of cold weather and possible snowshowers.

So at this point and time there is absolutely nothing to suggest that there is a blockbuster event on the east coast. There is absolutely nothing pointing towards that type of scenario at this point and time. The cold air is seasonable to at the most slightly below normal at this point and time.

Is there colder air coming or on the way? With the AO negative and the NAO negative to neutral it would be reasonable to think that there is colder air coming..but the coldest in 30 years as was being touted is simply wishcasting and trying to garnish revenue with no concern for the actual outcome of the weather!