GFS Gets Interesting-Is It Fantasy or A Chance at Happening?

One can always tell when winter is approaching because the GFS likes to produce in the long range what could be fantasy storms. At times these storms happen and other times they do not happen. Tonight the 00z GFS does not let us down…

Lets look at what it is showing to start with ..

An interesting event on the GFS which appears to show an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes which transfers its energy to a low that is off the coast.  850s are certainly cold enough to produce wintery type precipitation but what about the temperatures on this particular run.

With the timing of this potential event as modeled this very well could lead to a snow event across vast portion of the area as it is modeled.

The ensembles actually support the operational but appear to be a little slower and closer to the coast.

850s are still cold enough…but we all know what could be here today ..could be gone 6 hrs from now.

However..is there any type of support for something like this to be a remote possibility outside of the modeling.

We know that currently we are dealing with a La Nina …and we know that in La Nina winters the southern Jet Stream is usually less active..

However…there is some interesting things happening that may indeed support a pattern where something like this can occur. And we are going to look at those particular things ..in order to see if this is fantasy or a possibility.

First thing we are going to look at is the state of the ENSO..

06OCT2010     18.7-2.1     23.2-1.7     24.8-1.8     27.1-1.4
 13OCT2010     18.9-2.0     23.0-1.9     25.1-1.5     27.1-1.3
 20OCT2010     19.1-1.9     23.2-1.7     25.1-1.5     27.0-1.4
 27OCT2010     19.8-1.4     23.6-1.4     25.2-1.4     27.0-1.4
 03NOV2010     19.7-1.7     23.4-1.6     25.2-1.3     27.0-1.4

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 -1.4ºC


Niño 3.4 -1.3ºC


Niño 3 -1.6ºC


Niño1+2 -1.7ºC

Now, in the #s for October into November 3rd I want you to pay attention to the numbers that are bolded and on the right hand side. These are for region 3.4 which is what the ENSO status is based on and the most important #s.

Notice how it was as cold as –1.8 but now as of the 8th it is up to –1.3 . So over the past several weeks the ENSO 3.4 has been warming. Notice also that the coldest waters are actually in region 1.2 which means this is more of an East Based La Nina. However, perhaps more importantly is that rising in the #s although it seems to have leveled out for the time being at –1.3.

Now to take this a step further ..the # that was just released for August/Sept/October was also –1.3. There is alot of talk going around the internet that this is a strong La Nina and this is a west based La Nina and this simply is not the truth of what the data is showing.

Now, to make matters more interesting .. The SOI is falling..at one point it was as high as 24.52 and now is down to +16.18 .

To make matters even more interesting is the MJO..

The MJO is currently in Phase 6 and appears to be heading towards phases 7 & 8 which are actually EL Nino like Phases. I want to go one step further with this and then will tie it all together..

You can see how the IOD starts in November to be on the rise and gets up towards the neutral zone before later in Feb starts to decline again..

Last year I had shown how there is a correlation between the IOD and the SSTS in the Pacific and this could be the reason that the 3.4 region is warming.. If this is the case this could mean that the LA NINA has actually peaked and we could actually not end up with a strong La Nina but a Moderate La Nina that fades to a weak La Nina…and east based at that.

So, with the MJO moving into what would be El Nino like phases this does imply that the southern Jet Stream could become more active and that a low pressure could actually form like the GFS is showing. So it will be interesting to see what happens down the road.