The center of Tomas this morning has become totally exposed as is reflected in the image up above. This may be attributed to the shear which has now slightly increased to between 10-20 knots. The vorticity of the system has also now become more stretched out and elongated versus what it was just twelve hours ago.
The track of the system has continued to look to be off to the NNW and this track is now taking it closer to the eastern side of Haiti.
With increased shear and a stretched out vorticity and an exposed center..any additional strenthening should be slow to occur.The more northwards this system moves the sooner it would become extratropical in nature due to the strong deep layered trough to its north.
So whether or not this can become a hurricane or not now essentially comes down to the track that it moves on and along. A more North and then eastward track would keep it ahead of this deep layered trough. Of course a more eastward track would also mean a high amount of shear which would cause weakening. So it seems as though there is about a 36 hr window of opportunity for Tomas to strengthen but thereafter should weaken rapidly..
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