Perhaps a Sign of things To Come!

Perhaps you have seen the headlines…

Schools closed and AA has busiest day ever as weathermen predict blanket of snow for the whole of the UK
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1333781/UK-snow-blanket-closes-schools-AA-busiest-day-ever.html#ixzz16ojmBxPV

Or perhaps you have seen this headline…

More snow set after 'coldest November night in 134 years'

http://www.thisisderbyshire.co.uk/news/snow-set-coldest-November-night-134-years/article-2947337-detail/article.html

Why could this be a sign of things to come? Majority of the time the UK weather teleconnects to the weather that will transpire along the east coast. Perhaps a signal that despite the model confusion and model wars…some interesting weather may indeed take place!

Real Wx Service Continues Level 1 Alert For December 8-10th time frame

All the internet & weather fanatics are watching the time frame essentially from December 5 thru about the 10th for the possibility of a winter storm.

For those that have been following my posts in my forum…which the link (banner) can be found on the right hand side of the blog…you may have noticed that I have been talking about the different model solutions and how from my perspective ..I simply can not just ignore the GFS model in the fact that it has been consistently not showing a storm for the December 5th-6th time frame.

Meanwhile.. the ECM up until tonight had been showing a system that would effect portions of the Mid Atlantic into portions of the NE with a snow event albeit light for the most part. While on some model runs it would also show a second storm system..much bigger and more potent effecting mainly the southern Mid Atlantic and deep south regions.

So recently ..the GFS was not showing a system on the 5th and it also was not showing a system in the aforementioned dates above for the latter part..occasionally a run would show a storm but just as soon as it did that ..6 hrs later ..poof gone.

A very challenging forecast lies ahead and I am going to attempt to explain the reasons why.

Lets look at the modeling tonight between the two main models..

First up is the GFS..or the American Model.

Now this is quite the change from earlier runs of the GFS. However, the reason that this happened on the GFS is because of what is happening at hour 180

So the GFS is initially weaker with the S/W that everyone was watching for the 5th to 6th time period..and the block is stronger. What happens is as the block lifts North..there is a Polar S/W that is diving into the trough…which causes the system to explode and under go rapid cyclogenesis.

This then creates so much blocking that the entire rest of the GFS run is extremely cold.

So lets look at the ECM and see what this model does..

After showing a system on its 12 Z run which delivered a snow event to parts of the Mid Atlantic into the NE..tonights run has a weaker S/W (trend towards the GFS) which just fades away by 144 hrs. However..it starts to build a storm in the SW around 156 hrs out . Massive blocking on the ECM..so much blocking that it actually tries to connect with the Ridging out west..

You can see the blocking above..that it appeared it may get cut off but by 174-180 hrs its starting to eject from the TX area . By 198 its south of  Mobile, Lousianna ..however..before this point it had already closed off. Very close to phasing ..however..its not able to make the turn and heads off Hatteras and then ENE from there. This provides a snow storm across the deep south into the SE places like GA, Alabama, LA, TX etc

As you can see the two solutions are pretty similar in there depiction and the result of what is going to happen with this system is going to highly depend on the positioning of the blocking and the timing of the S/W’s involved.. If the block is not as strong then this system would be able to make the turn and if the GFS is correct (which keep in mind the ECM trended towards it with the Dec 5th now non event) ..and this storm undergoes Rapid Cyclogenesis…further NORTH..we could be indeed talking about a blockbuster event!

Stay tuned for further updates on this challenging time period!

R.W.S First Level 1 Alert of the 2010-11 Winter Season!

Level 1 Alert : On Guard. This means conditions look favorable for a significant winter event across the region or a light to moderate winter event!

Date & Time: November 29th 2010 @ 2:30 AM EST

Area Of Potential: Southern Mid Atlantic, Mid Atlantic & Northeast.

As mentioned above level 1 just implies that conditions look favorable for a potential winter storm. It does not mean that one will take place but conditions warrant being watched.

This level 1 alert is actually being issued for the time period of December 8-10th 2010.

Lets take a look at the modeling that has lead to this Level 1 Alert.

GFS is showing a storm system that takes shape and gathers moisture from the GOM while over the Southeast and then it moves the system up the coast as it deepens and gets down to about 986 mbs. This particular solution would not provide a snowstorm to the south. However…

The 00z ECM would provide the southern Mid Atlantic with a snowstorm and as of 240 hours it is just off the coast of Cape Hatteras! The ECM does not go beyond this time frame..so it kind of leaves the snow lovers further to the north high and dry at this point and time.

Pretty much the reason that the ECM is suppressed for the NE and Northern Mid Atlantic is because it has the Polar Vortex pretty far to the south sitting over the Great Lakes.

Both models agree that there is going to be a storm in this time frame..while one takes it up the coast into the NE ..the other keeps it south. So with such agreement at this point and time on a storm system it seems prudent to blend the model solutions together and put the above areas at a level 1 Alert!

Teleconnections are favorable with a negative AO as well as a negative NAO. Blocking is in place. 50/50 low is in place. PNA is switching to neutral to slightly positive…and the S/W is not going negatively tilted before it reaches Lousianna area.

Due to the above factors ..a Level 1 Alert is being issued to be on guard for the possibility of a significant winter weather event. Residents from the Southern Mid Atlantic to the Northeast should pay attention to the modeling in the days ahead!

If conditions as we get into closer range warrant an upgrade a statement will be issued at that time. Stay tuned for further updates on what could be the first significant storm of the 2010-11 winter season!

November 29th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature on the 28th @ KABE was 45 degrees which was slightly below normal for this time of the year!

Monday is going to be a mostly sunny day across the region. However it is going to once again be a day on the chilly side of the equation with high temps once again in the 30s to the north with the 40s pretty much elsewhere!

Monday will essentially be the last nice weather day across the region before a mid level trough with a strong cold front approaches the region and clouds increase along with some heavy rain and the potential for thunderstorms as well.

November 28th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 27th @ KABE was 40 degrees! This was well below normal for this time of the year. However..if recent data is correct..yesterday may seem “warm” to what could be down the pipe line where temps for highs could be in the 20s and lows in the single digits or teens. One thing for certain winter is upon us!

Today outside of some lake effect snows ..its going to be a mainly sunny day across the region. Perhaps some snowshowers in parts of Maine..other wise mainly sunny skies will be the rule rather then the exception.

Despite the sunshine however..temperatures will be on the colder side with 20s and 30s across Maine and the 40s elsewheres!

Before the potential cold blast comes and the potential for some snow ..there will be some heavy rain and milder weather for a day or two..There after the bottom looks to start dropping from the barrel and perhaps fall out completely!

Real Wx Service Weather Forum!

For those who are not yet aware..Real Wx Services has a weather discussion forum which we encourage all readers of the blog to sign up to as winter approaches and the weather starts to once again get interesting!
You can find the latest daily forecasts there from R.W.S , all maps issued by R.W.S, as well as input from 4 Pro Meteorologists.
1. Jim Rinaldi
2. John Ruggiano
3. Larry Cosgrove
4. Steve Demartino
There are special sections set up for these Pro Mets and when something is on the horizon ..you will be able to find their discussions there! If you have any questions for them-that would be the place to ask and receive your answers.

We here at R.W.S are striving to make this the best weather forum on the net & part of doing so is by offering & obtaining valuable input from Pro Mets! In the future, we will be offering contests ..for example:
The person who invites the most people to the forum & sign up...in a 30 day period will get a free R.W.S Product such as: Mousepad, Pen, Cap, or Tshirt!

We need your help to accomplish this goal & we look forward to seeing you there!

November Rains Lead Into December Rains!

A strong mid level trough will be moving into the central part of the country on tuesday and associated with this trough will be a strong cold front. However. out ahead of the cold front will be a strong push of Warm air advection which will cause a southwesterly flow with plenty of moisture along the front.

There also may be enough instability to cause some thunderstorms along the front as it approaches the region. Rainfall from this system is expected to be heavy across the region with upwards of 2 inches possible. This may cause some flooding on roads. Stay tuned for further updates!

Behind this system things will turn colder once again, There is a possibility that the rain could change to snowshowers across places like the Poconos and further north.

The Hype Continues From Some “Pros”

In any case much of the nation southeast of a line from Amarillo to Albany NY will have their coldest 30 day period of the winter starting now. I made a statement with the first winter forecast that at the end of December, we may be very close to where we were last year at the same time, but all this will fade the rest of the winter.
But there is some great potential in the upcoming 3-4 for much of the nation north I -40 and the threat of a storm of blockbuster category along the east coast is on the table, especially between the 5th and 15th.

First off if this is considered the coldest 30 day period it is not getting off to that good of a start.

As one can plainly see temperatures are not all that far from seasonal levels and if anything it is slightly below normal. Of course we know that JB has been toting the horn that if we do not get snow and cold between Thanksgiving and Christmas essentially then we should expect a torch. Of course we here @ R.W.S do not take that stance and you can refer to the winter outlook which is linked in the upper right hand corner of the blog.

However..what I want to talk about mainly is the threat for a blockbuster event along the east coast. This is the words that started this post to begin with. So lets look at the first threat..This would fall in the December 5-7th time frame.

What we have here on the ECM is a low pressure moving from Iowa (central) to Grand Rapids Michigan and then getting pushed SE by confluence and blocking across PA moving SE and then redeveloping off the SNJ coast and then moving slowly to the ENE as it intensifies. Temperatures appear to be in the 30s ..so there could be boundary layer issues for the cities and along the coast..however inland seems to be in a better scenario. At the most the 12 Z ECM would be showing a light to perhaps low end moderate snow event for places cold enough in all layers to receive snow!

GFS on the other hand is similar at the start of the time frame..

However..it shears that system out and instead concentrates on energy over the Atlantic ocean

And then retrogrades that area of low pressure to give portions of the NE a snowstorm. However..the GFS is the only model that is showing this type of solution.

However..if you go beyond this time frame there is no apparent threat on the table outside of cold weather and possible snowshowers.

So at this point and time there is absolutely nothing to suggest that there is a blockbuster event on the east coast. There is absolutely nothing pointing towards that type of scenario at this point and time. The cold air is seasonable to at the most slightly below normal at this point and time.

Is there colder air coming or on the way? With the AO negative and the NAO negative to neutral it would be reasonable to think that there is colder air coming..but the coldest in 30 years as was being touted is simply wishcasting and trying to garnish revenue with no concern for the actual outcome of the weather!

November 27th Weather Discussion

High temperature @ KABE was 47 degrees on the 26th. This was seasonal for this time of the year!

Basically today will consist of mostly cloudy skies from about Northern PA and points Northwards with the chance of snow and or snowshowers across N PA to Northern and Central New England into Maine. The rest of the region will be under partly sunny skies!

Temperatures today will generally be in the 30s where the clouds and potential for snow exists and the 40s elsewhere!

I hope every one of the readers has had a wonderful thanksgiving!

Accuweather Are they for Real? Is This Any Different From Normal?

Those who follow this blog know that Real Wx Services had started posting about and talking about a potential snowstorm around the December 5-7th time frame. We have been talking about this from as early as November 19th already so this is really nothing new on the weather horizon.

We also tell people that forecasting in the long range is alot more difficult because models and there solutions will change and that we should not actually pay too much attention to details past day 5 but rather just pick up clues from the synoptic weather patterns they are showing. None of this is anything new.

So here we still have the potential for a snowstorm on December 5th –7th time frame which is now no longer long range but the medium range.

Latest models show the following scenarios..

ECMWF

GFS

Now as you can see both models have a storm on there synoptic charts. On the ECM the –NAO is west based and the blocking is so strong that it suppresses and shears out the system. Its really a SW flow event that pops a secondary off the coast of Hatteras and then that goes out to sea.

The GFS has a similar situation but pops a secondary further north and does bring some precipitation into the area but its also a weak storm.

Now the above is the latest data and situation on the storm potential. And we continue to use the word potential because it is still beyond the 5 day period.

However…I just got done reading the funniest thing ever online from a Pro Met from Accuweather..They just posted a blog .

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Nov 26, 2010; 2:35 PM ET

And from the blog posted is the following:

There are three possibilities as we see it now: 1) It will happen, bringing one of the biggest snowstorms of the winter. 2) It won't happen and could be just plain old sunny and dry. Or, 3) A storm forms, but is too far off the coast to bring snow, or tracks too far to the west and brings rain.

Are they for real? I mean, are these not always the possibilities when it comes to winter storms? Was this really blog worthy at this point when they basically throw the process of using a dart board to analyze the potential?

This is why Real Wx Services makes a difference…we show you the potential and then when it gets closer to the potential we will show you why this storm could happen & if not explain why it will not happen.

First Snow of the 2010-2011 Winter Season

First snowfall of the season for a total of 1.4 inches..This is pretty close to the year 1925-1926 winter season…Gathered this information from the NWS..

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1120 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010

...SNOWIEST THANKSGIVINGS IN THE AVAILABLE CLIMATE DATABASE...

SNOW IS BEING REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR REGION ON THIS
THANKSGIVING DAY. BELOW WE HAVE LISTED ALL THE THANKSGIVING DAYS
THAT A TRACE OR MORE OF SNOW FELL AT OUR 4 LONG TERM LOCAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA /LCD/ SITES. THERE WERE SOME THANKSGIVING DAYS
THAT ARE MISSING AND THOSE YEARS ARE LISTED AT THE BOTTOM.


...ALLENTOWN...

   RANK          SNOW              YEAR
               (INCHES)

     1            2.5              1989
     1            2.5              1971
     3            1.7              1925
     4            0.6              2005
     5             T               1995
     5             T               1980
     5             T               1976
     5             T               1974
     5             T               1968
     5             T               1959
     5             T               1956
     5             T               1931
     5             T               1930
     5             T               1929

Which that years winter ended up looking like this..

And precipitation for that winter?

We will see how this winter plays out! Happy Thanksgiving!

Thanksgiving Holiday Forecast

The high temperature for the 24th @ KABE was 47 degrees ..This is actually the seasonal value for this time of the year!

This forecast is issued for tomorrow Thanksgiving and the following day as well. There may or may not be a daily forecast issued for the 26th…

Thanksgiving is going to be a cloudy day across the region. High pressure is currently in control but is beginning to slide out. This will allow a warm front which is to the southwest of the region to begin to lift up to the NE. This is going to provide a very decent push of WAA or Warm Air Advection. This is actually causing over running precipitation which is well North of this warm front.

Dewpoints at this present time are relatively dry and low across the area. Around the KABE region they are in the teens. This means that as the precipitation moves in its going to be lost to virga (some remember that well from last winter) ..but will eventually saturate the column.

At the surface there is going to be a rather cold air mass leftover in place and as the warmer air moves in aloft with the precipitation ..it could create some nasty holiday travel in the form of snow/sleet and freezing rain. However..by afternoon due to the WAA pretty much all areas should change over to rain..the only exception could be in the Poconos where the cold air likes to get trapped and linger longer.

Temperatures today are going to also be on the cold side with highs only in the 20s in Maine and pretty much the 30s elsewheres. Places such as NYC and KPHL may reach the lower 40s. These places should see a primarily rain event as well.

So with the above in mind the following map is issued mainly to show the precipitation types one can expect over the period.

The ICE area is where a potential for up to .25 ice exists. If you are out and about traveling in these regions please be aware of any deteriorating weather conditions.

November 24th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature November 23rd at KABE was 58 degrees. This was another day that ended up above normal for this time of the year as skies partially cleared out allowing some sunshine.

Thanksgiving eve..First, I hope all readers have a very happy holiday and remember that it is a time to be thankful for family and friends and everything you have in life ..regardless of what you may be lacking because there is always someone worse then you are! May God Bless each & every reader!

Now back to the weather for Thanksgiving Eve..

For the most part it is going to be a partly sunny day across the region but clouds will be on the increase. One exception to this is there maybe some left over snow and or rain showers from the frontal system that moved thru from NY into Maine. Otherwise it should be partly sunny across the region.

By evening time, clouds will be on the increase and in the overnight hours precipitation could start making its way east from the west. That will take us into thanksgiving early morning hours.

Thanksgiving at this point looks to be mainly on the wet and cool side..perhaps cool enough to start as wintry precipitation from ABE region on North.

Temperatures for thanksgiving eve will be in the 30s to the North into maine with 40s pretty much elsewhere ..NYC and points south into EC PA and then southeast of there should be in the lower 50s.

November 23rd Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 22nd @ KABE was 59 degrees which resulted in a day with well above normal departures.

Today will be a mostly cloudy day across the region with rain moving in from the west. This should be a brief shot of rain however in association with a cold front that will be moving across the region.

Temperatures will be in the 40s North across Maine and then the 50s south of there to the 60s from SNE to  southern PA into SNJ and point south…

Overall another day that should end up on the positive side of the departure spectrum.

Thanksgiving Holiday Outlook Forecast

A cold front will be approaching the region on tuesday afternoon . The air out ahead of this cold front will be on the mild side for this time of the year with temperatures making it into the 60s. However, the winds will switch around to the Northwest and there will be a strong push of CAA across the region.
For wednesday we will actually have a nice day weather wise in the sense that it should be dry and sunny but then clouds will be increasing thruout the afternoon and precipitation should start to nose into the area on thursday morning. Depending on how fast the moisture arrives..there could be some wintry precipitation to start across the Northern counties of PA and NW NJ..otherwise as the low pressure develops along the front it should draw in warm enough air that the only concern would be dealing with rain for thanksgiving day and night into the day on Friday. However..once the cold front associated with the system moves off the coast its possible that any rain could change into snow showers or flurries on friday afternoon into the evening .
After this coastal low then departs the region the skies will clear but it will become chilly and rather breezy as well.
Hope each and every one of you enjoys their Thanksgiving & Happy Holidays from us here at Real Wx Services to you and your family!

November 22nd Daily Weather Discussion

November 21st high temperature @ KABE was 48 degrees which was seasonal but with the overnight low ended up with a negative departure again.

Today is going to be a mainly cloudy day with a different variety of weather depending on where you live and reside in the Northeast.

From Northern PA into majority of the NE there will be a chance of showers. However when you go to N VT, N NH and Northern Maine you may run into the chance of some ice or snow. However, any ice or snow in those areas will change to rain by evening.

Temperatures in the regions that experience the ice and or snow will be in the 30s to 40s and pretty much the rest of the region will be under cloudy skies with temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s.

November 21st Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature at KABE on the 20th was 53 degrees which was 4 degrees above normal but with the overnight low going down to 26..the day ended on a negative departure overall!

Today is going to be a sunny day to start but with increasing clouds thru the day in the KABE region. Areas to the west from Central PA will have increasing clouds thru the day. For the most part the day should remain precipitation free as it is not till after midnight when the chances for precipitation would increase but that takes us into monday!

Temperatures are going to range from the 20s and 30s to the north to the 40s to the south and then the low 50s from about KPHL draw a line to the west and then south of that line.

All and all another seasonable to below seasonable weather day is on tap.

Future outlook down the road shows a day or two where the temperatures will get above normal before the bottom begins to drop out of the barrel after Thanksgiving day with perhaps places like ABE seeing there first flakes before the holiday weekend is over!

GFS Continues The Two Storm Theme!

Aside from the 6 Z run early in the day yesterday…since the start of the 00z run on 11/20 we have had 4 runs show the two storms in less then a week for the first week of December. Tonight the GFS once again has shown both storms. Details at this range are fruitless to get concerned over.

Storm #1

Then there is storm #2

Now, the pattern that we appear to be heading into is indeed conducive for a storm to occur.

1. You have the blocking around Greenland.

2. Your thanksgiving storm turns into the new Polar Vortex.

3. We are in a parade of waves coming in off the pacific.

4. The models are showing a retrograding GOA low ..heading towards the Aleutians.

5. A strongly –NAO which is being progged..

#5 is the reason that I would not be completely sold on the track of storm #2 as a strong negative NAO can lead to suppression.

And yet another part of the pattern is the progged value of the AO is expected to go quite negative..which has not been this negative since 2009.

So this spells a emptying of cold air so to speak into the US with the PNA going towards neutral & a negative NAO ..if we have the active wave train this could potentially lead to a snowy start to december.

Stay tuned for more on this developing winter story!

18 Z GFS Carries Over The Two Potential Storms!

Storm #1 Dec 1-2nd

 

Storm # 2

Storm # 1 may be literally too warm verbatim at the surface for an all snow event but at this point details like that are too far into the future to be even concerned about.

Currently the pattern seems favorable for a potential storm across the east coast. We will continue to monitor these two time frames!