Severe Weather Potential for the 21st Of November!

The above is the most recent surface map and you can see the cold front is basically across Southeast TX and then rides NE from there.

It is along this front and to its south and east that we think the greatest chances of severe weather will be.

The areas further north will more or less be dependent on a warm front moving N towards the region.

So we have two areas highlighted..One area is where the greatest chance of severe exists and that would be tornado’s and wind or hail.

The other area would be mainly for isolated instances of wind and or hail.

Now the areas in yellow is where we think the greatest risk for tornados would be based on the Energy Helicity that is available that you can see on the images below as 1 or above which is in the color red..

SWEAT index is quite high on the most recent GFS across some of the region.. With an area as high as 500. Keep in mind that anything above 400 can mean Tornadic activity is possible.

Now, part of the area in high SWEAT is also in the red zone on our map. The red zone is more isolated severe. While we do not expect any tornado’s to occur in that area we can not rule out an isolated tornado in that area …especially in TX where the SWEAT is high. Now if the EHI in those areas was also projected to be high then a more tornadic threat would be possible ..however..that is not the case so we keep with Isolated Severe in that region.

CAPE is about 500-2000 across the region. This is another reason for only isolated severe in the red zone and that is because cape is generally less then 500. The greatest CAPE values is over the yellow zoned region.

Lift index is 0 to –6..

SHEAR is more then favorable for severe weather with shear values of 25-50 knots.

Now perhaps one limiting factor on the severe out look is this:

The NAM shows the same cloud cover. First image is 7 AM in the morning and the next is at 1 PM. So cloud cover may be a negative factor on the severe weather as it would cut down on the day time heating ahead of the cold front.

We disagree with SPC and there slight risk zone and there tornado highlighted area because as you can see there is a lack of EHI as far N into ARK as what they show.

Stay tuned for more info should it become necessary and as always follow the latest on the Real Wx Service Facebook fan page!