After looking over the most recent 00z guidance including the GFS & the SREF..we have come up with the region highlighted above that would have the best chance of severe weather on Tuesday.
The greatest area of CAPE is actually across SE TX where it is about 1000-2000. There is a narrow corridor of about 500-1000 that extends to the north.
The SWEAT or severe weather threat index is only around 300-350 so we are not anticipating any tornado’s for Tuesday. However this index does indicate severe is likely. LI or lift index is –2 to –4. Lapse rates are 6.0-6.5 across the region.
The greatest threat appears to be wind damage.
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