By 12 Z this morning low pressure should be in the vicinity of Eastern OK . A cold front extends South and then southwest from this low and then also extends NE to a low over the Great Lakes. It is this cold front with colder air behind it that will be the focal point and trigger for severe weather.
We are a little concerned with the potential for tornados and this is more having to do with the Energy Helicity Index then any other parameter in place. Those images are below:
The areas that are in red are essentially the greatest areas for the Tornado possibilities as the EHI is above 1. SWEAT index is less then 400 though on the latest NAM.
Lift index across the area is 0 to –8
CAPE (convective potential energy) is also pretty impressive with 500-3000 across the region depending on where you are located.
Shear is more then favorable with 25-50 knots across the region . Mid level lapse rates of 5.5-6.5.
Dew points in the 60s..surface temperatures in the lower 80s (ahead of the colder air) all spell potential for a recipe of severe weather with the potential of Super Cells.
The threats that will exist as mentioned above are Tornado’s along with damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH and large hail.
We would not be surprised to see a tornado watch issued in that region by the Severe Prediction Center by later in the afternoon into the evening time if those EHI #’s become a reality.
Stay tuned for more information should it become necessary & as always you can follow on Facebook for all the latest information!
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