Introducing a new map for severe weather potentials with this update. Normally we like to wait till a system is within the range of the NAM & SREF..however..one of our viewers is not going to be able to be around on Sunday to check in because her birthday is on Monday! So we like to give a shout out to Cati K and wish her a Happy Birthday with plenty more to come!
So what we are going to do is look at the severe weather parameters off of the latest run of the GFS. If need be we will fine tune this as we get closer to Monday..
We are going to be seeing low pressure and its associated trough move out of the Four Corners region and low pressure will begin to deepen around the Texas /Oklahoma panhandle region . Southerly flow will be out ahead of this low pressure area & temperatures will top out in the 70-80 range.
Guidance is also showing a strong lower level jet in place of 60 knots. With temperatures in the 70-80 range and dew points in the 60s along with 40 knots + deep layer shear across the region.
Factor into this equation the SWEAT index is 400-450 across majority of Northern and central TX & CAPE of 1000-2000 and you have a recipe for severe weather with the potential of tornados as well. The greatest threat for tornados at this time does appear to be in TX , as this is where the highest SWEAT is located.
The threat of severe weather should diminish with the daytime heating though it is possible that some storms could occur with the passage of the cold front itself.
Stay tuned for more information if necessary as we get closer to Monday!
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