Once again we have decided to issue two zones with the yellow zone being the most likely zone for severe weather based on parameters off the 00z NAM and the SREF..
In the yellow zone we see this is the best location via the parameters of CAPE 500-2000.
EHI is 0.5-1.0 this would signify the potential for tornado’s.
Lift index –2 to – 6
Lapse rates are about 6.0-6.5
SHEAR about 25-50 knots…
Further to the north the parameters are either extremely low (such as Lift index, Lapse rates (less then 5.5) or they are essentially non existent like the CAPE. The only favorable ingredient for severe weather further north is the shear.
Another factor that may have a impeding on severe weather once again will be the cloud cover that is expected to be in place..
The greatest threats to the north should be wind and or hail with heavy rain..while the southern regions can expect the potential for Tornado’s in addition to the wind or hail and heavy rains!
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