The above image was posted by Lehigh Valley Weather Patrol (click here for their Facebook page) ..If you are a follower of Real Wx Services we ask that you also support and like their page as they were the ONLY outlet along with Real Wx Services to forecast the Oct 29th Snow Storm well in advance of the major media outlets and the National Weather Service. So if you go to their page , click like, and mention that R.W.S sent you.
Now, in order for a negative NAO to come about we need a strong storm to cut into the Great Lakes. The question is do we have something like this showing up on the guidance?
You can see by the above that we do have a system that is slated to head up into the Great Lakes.. So this is what our current thinking is at the present time..
Now, we are calling this the pattern changer which potentially will lead to a Negative NAO. Now , when you are talking about something that is so far out you can not just rely on model guidance alone but you have to look to the teleconnections and see what they are suggesting..
Ensembles suggest that we are going to be heading into phases 7-8 by the end of the period.
AO after its spike up (the milder period we will have the next two weeks under ridging) it is shown to start falling and perhaps quite negative.
So as you can see there is support for the negative NAO to build into the region near mid month…a few days on either side and since models tend to rush pattern changes we will say the third week of the month …
So enjoy the mild weather because if the guidance is correct we start getting more towards fun and games towards the latter part of the month..
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