Worlds apart....
This is the best way to describe tonights 00z suite of model solutions. Its the ECM versus the GFS.
Lets look at the GFS first. As you can see at 144 hours the GFS holds on to the primary to long and tries to drive it directly into the confluence over the Great Lakes and the Northeast.
Tonights 00z GFS had many positives to it. First it had a stronger negative NAO. Second it had a stronger Greenland block. However..it took the 50/50 low and moved it to far north and the result was more of a SE ridge. Any forecaster worth his weight, knows that you are not going to have a SE ridge with a strong -NAO and a Strong Greenland block.
Moving on to the 00z ECM..This model has been consistent with its solution and has not been jumping around from run to run and is pretty much comparable to the 18 Z GFS. Imagine that the 18 Z GFS making more synoptic sense then the 00z run. Suffice to say that the 18 Z had a much better handle on the pattern then the 00z GFS.
QPF on the ECM is not as impressive as one would think it would be in this scenario. Again..I have to ask everyone to keep in mind that the teleconnectors are favoring more amplification and more amplification would also in my opinion, result in more QPF . I believe that will come in due time.
So thats a run down of tonights model suite. As soon as the teleconnections update for the evening I will follow this post with them.
Essentially I am expecting the secondary to develop over or just off the coast of VA. And then that secondary will ride NE from there.
Essentially i also believe that the thermo profile that you see on tonights ECM will be pretty close to the actual outcome. Still 5-6 days out but my confidence grows with each run of the ECM remaining consistent.
It actually reminds me of 1996 in the sense that the ECM was the most consistent on showing that particular storm which resulted in a blizzard. From a week out it never wavered. I am not implying that this will be a blizzard by any means..but i believe this could be a major snowstorm for those North and West of I-95 and odds just improved in my opinion for I-95 itself.
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