i was working on my new map and quite frankly this is the most complicated map and storm system that I have ever had to forecast and well quite frankly would say bust potential is quite high....
This map is going to be based on a blend of the ECM and then the rest of the 00z suite models.
Cold front has basically stalled to the south of the area , roughly south of Maryland. This cold front has become a stationary front and runs basically from east off the coast of Maine southwest ward to east of tennessee and then southwestward from there to the developing surface low to the east of Louisiana , just south of the western Florida Panhandle. Where does this low pressure go from there?
I believe this low pressure is going to move in a NE direction and be to the east of Tennessee about 12 Z friday...from there I believe the low pressure will continue to move in a ENE direction and pass off the coast around the delmarva region. From there the low pressure should continue to head NNE and pass over Eastern LI and then right over Boston, MA .....
Meanwhile High pressure is continuing to press its influence of lower level cold air off to the south and east into the areas that the cold front has passed thru. This front is going to separate the milder air at the surface from the colder air at the surface. However..due to the storm coming from the Gulf of Mexico and without a high pressure remaining firmly in place ...the air aloft is going to be above freezing in most locales.
So this low pressure is going to create a potpourri of precipitation and copious amounts as well.
Besides the ingredients shown on the map ..please keep in mind that as the colder air gets wrapped in behind this system that we could be looking at flash freeze situations. This is the first Miller A of the season and its not technically winter yet and if you do not get snow out of this one ...Lets just say i believe the rest of the month of December is going to offer plenty more chances of snow and ICE.....
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