Wow...Can you say that there is no harmony between the models tonight? At hour 168..the 00z ECM still has the southern shortwave in the GOM...Meanwhile at 168 hours the GFS has the southern S/W essentially phased with the clipper dropping down out of Canada and is causing this low pressure to cut up towards the Great Lakes.
However...the GFS while cutting it towards the lakes basically realizes that it runs into strong blocking from a 1037-1039 high pressure area. So then it realizes that it can not go further north..cuts itself off and then jumps to the east coast via route of PA...at 192 hours.
Meanwhile the ECM has the Southern S/W in the GOM at 168 hours and then at 192 hours it is in eastern Maine.
So you maybe asking yourself which model makes more synoptic sense with the teleconnectors that are in place. Technically, I think they both have some aspects of truth to them. I believe that you are seeing a slower trend on the 00z suite tonight compared to 12 Z runs which indicates that the blocking is starting to be realized. With the NAO tanking and the PNA on the rise..the models are starting to dig the Northern S/W further south on the 00z runs.. Now where I believe the GFS is going in the wrong direction is it is focusing too much energy on the primary clipper instead of the southern S/W. When looking at hour 174 you can see the GFS actually has another S/W off the delmarva coast..This is where the secondary should pop on this run....but with the models initializing in a positive NAO because thats where we are now..They are having a hard time adjusting to the development of the NAO....
So as i stressed earlier this afternoon...keep an eye on the teleconnections and as soon as they update I will post them here. Thats all for tonight on this 00z Suite..
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