For those of you who were waiting on this to be updated...I sincerely apologize for the lateness of it. However, my Father is in the hospital so that took my earlier time up today.
For some reason the 00z and the 12 Z of the GFS are having a problem with handling the pattern of the Greenland Block and the strong negative NAO with the rising PNA. However, when it comes to the 18 Z runs..and now this is two days in a row..the model takes a huge step towards the ECM. You can see at 126 hours that the primary hands off to a secondary around the southern Jersey coast and then it takes it NE up the coast line.
For starters, its a little too close to the coast..however it is slightly offshore. Secondly, i believe the hand off is still a little too far north. The ECM has been consistent on this secondary developing either over VA or just offshore of VA and I think that is the most likely scenario.
The ECM has been the most consistent with this storm and is colder and also more south and east. The ECM is also posted up above along with the 18 Z GFS for 126 hours.
So should we expect the 00z tonight to continue with and along the trend of trending to the ECM like the 18 Z was? I am not so sure about that. I think the 00Z might trend back to a more western solution. The GFS physics are simply not as good as the ECM at handling the pattern.
However...I am confident enough at this point that I feel i can issue a scenario map with using the ECM for the track of the storm and the GFS for the QPF. So this map is a blend of the GFS/ECM.....As always these maps are subject to change but given the consistency on the ECM..confidence level is 8/10
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