Teleconnectors are important as they over all are what control our weather. It is there signals that determine where cold air will be. Where amplification will be. In winter time, where snowstorms will be. Where storms should be and should track.
Ensemble means are just as important because they take all the individual ensemble members and blend them into one solution. Sometimes the Operational run will trend towards the ensemble means and yet others the Ensemble means will trend towards the operational run. When the ensemble mean generally stays consistent the chances of the operational run trending towards that consensus solution become better.
So with the above said lets look at the teleconnectors in reference to the January 3rd time frame...
As you can see the NAO is expected to become quite negative on the charts above. The PNA starts negative..but what is important to realize is that it is rising and becomes positive. These two teleconnectors argue for a solution that would be more amplified then what is currently being shown on todays model runs.
Its too early to get into specifics on this storm system. The thing I encourage everyone to keep an eye on is these teleconnectors.The ensemble mean of the GFS is actually more in line with these connections. In the sense that it is showing an off the coast solution-Miller B...
The 12 Z ECM Ensemble mean was also further south with the secondary off the coast of Southern Jersey.
With the transition into a different pattern..You are going to notice that models are going to flip flop from one scenario to another. However..the overall method to keep yourself from going crazy with each run is to watch those teleconnections. With those teleconnections you can tell whether a model is close to a correct solution or is still not in touch with the upper air patterns.
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