Lets look at the models. First we have the 00z NAM. The 00z NAM brings the cold front thru the region and the cold air is stronger on the 00z run of the NAM as it develops "the wedge" at 54 hours. The "wedge" is better known as CAD or Cold Air Damming. You can see this at 54 hours... The 00z NAM keeps the cold air locked in over the NW burbs of I-95 until approx 60 hours out until it warms up above freezing.
The 00z GFS ....while it still has the 1035-36 high pressure to the north, and while it has trended colder..still has a warmer solution. This can be attributed to the GFS being a global model and a lower resolution.
The NAM would equal a Snow/ice event across the region North and West of I-95..until it would change over to rain....
The GFS would also be frozen to start but this would be further away from I-95. NE PA and then NW interior regions and Central Pa...
As the models trend closer to this event they are trending colder. We are about 48-60 hours out now. I expect the trend colder to continue as the teleconnections of a -EPO +NAO and a -PNA would suggest. That would push the frontal boundary south and the cold push as well south. At this time..everyone from 40 N is still very much in the game!
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