While the models are not in agreement yet on what is going to transpire during this period of time. The above map will give you an ideal of what over running involves and how it happens.
At the present time we are in a pattern that has a positive NAO and a -PNA along with a -EPO. As long as these teleconnections continue to remain in this state..This will not spell a warm pattern for the Northeast but rather keep the area more on the cold side.
The results you are seeing in the models on tonights 00z runs are somewhat different. The GFS is showing the -EPO..however the ECM delays this -EPO until Day 6. If the GFS is correct with the -EPO which i believe it is...this time period over the next 48 hours should trend colder.
Theres going to be a frontal boundary that sets up and this boundary will divide the mild air to the south from the cold air to the north. Where this boundary sets up is important because this will determine whom gets snow/ice/rain. The GFS shows high pressure in the range of 1032-1037 which is a Major High Pressure area but yet somehow manages to make the second half of this time period too warm for majority in the upper Mid Atlantic.
However, as I noted above if the teleconnections are correct then over the next 48 hours the models should trend colder. I would pay heed to the 12 Z, 18 Z and the 00 Z runs as these are the more accurate of the three. Stay tuned for any updates on this pattern shaping up!
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