This is the latest in the tropical wave department and it is 90 L. 90 L was an invest that was deactivated and is getting its act together and doing so quite nicely.
We here at Real Wx Services feel that 90 L has the potential to become the first hurricane of the season and this potential hurricane could very well take a track towards southern Tx. We put the chances of 90 L developing into a tropical system at 60 % with in the next 48 hours!
Lets look at the surroundings:
As you can see via above shear is not an issue as it is splitting the shear with the highest north and south with only 5-10 knots of shear and this is not in any way detrimental to the development of the system.
Dry air is also not going to be a hindrance to the development of 90 L. So the two things that are normally setbacks for developing tropical waves , are actually preventing a favorable setting for development!
AS of 15 Z the best area of convergence was off to the NW of the system but the divergence over the system is very favorable for development!
The only other negative that we can see is the best area of vorticity was off to the NW as well..
Now lets take a look at some other things such as direction and also water temps and tropical cyclone heat potential ..
The steering flow suggests that we should continue to move off to the west northwest over the time being which would take it thru some warm waters..
Now the last image is the TCHP image and you can see that where the invest is currently the heat potential for development is very favorable for development but as we get further into the GOM things become slightly less favorable with cooler heat potential. Generally when you look at the scale you want to see the area in 80 or above and that is why where it is now located is a very favorable setting.
As you can see this is what the GFS means are thinking trackwise for this system. The ECM however has a bit more south tracking around the Tx/Mexico border.
AS the most recent image above shows the convection is really starting to blossom around the center and this is no surprise given what we said above!
Residents in southern TX to Mexico need to pay attention to this system because ATM there is nothing holding this system back from developing into the first hurricane of the season on the atlantic side!
Stay tuned for more information and further updates!
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