Let me start this off by saying we are not very impressed over all with the severe weather aspects for tomorrow. As of 6 PM today there has not been that many severe reports as there is limited moisture return and we believe that this could be a problem tomorrow as well.
These storms that occur are going to be more like popcorn type storms and dependent upon day time heating. They are not going to be the result of any really organized system but rather a cold front and a weak cold front at that.
So lets look at the parameters and then we will look at the weather synopsis behind the thinking above.
CAPE is 500-4000 depending on where you are located
Lift index is 0 to – 8 depending where you are located
SWEAT index is around 400 in a small area from E colorado into western Nebraska and South Dakota
However EHI is generally below 1 everywhere in the zone..
Dewpoints will be in the 60s-70s range..
We really do not see tornado’s as a potential today..maybe a isolated one in the location where the SWEAT is highest but the main threats of any storms that can form will be hail and wind..
Weather Synopsis
Low pressure in south central canada with a warm front extending south and a cold front extending south to a low pressure over NW Iowa with the cold front continuing to trail southwest to another low pressure over NE New Mexico.
Another stationary front is draped across the Gulf of Mexico states to Florida and an area of low pressure overSW Alabama.
Warm front will lift towards the NE and the cold front will progress its way eastward thru the day and it is this frontal system that will result in showers and thunderstorms of which some will be severe.
Once again guidance is not showing much in the way of moisture return do to the front being really weak. So the storms will be more along the popcorn variety…
Stay tuned for more information should it become necessary
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