The national hurricane center has this invest at a 40 % chance of development. The models themselves are not enthusiastic about this area developing.The satellite up above shows very little organization. Besides being elongated the system is currently in 30-40 knots of shear. The best convergence is off to the East Northeast and there is also dry air around the invest.
The conditions surrounding this invest are not favorable for developing. The anti cyclone is off to the west of the system & this system is moving in the opposite direction of that anti cyclone.
We feel at best this area of interest will cause showers and thunderstorms along the gulf coast into Florida and put the chances of this developing at 10%.
We will continue to monitor this system and if anything changes we will update this.
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