The above map is based off the latest GFS/NAM/SREF. The area in red lines is the area that we think has the potential for a moderate risk for straight line winds and large hail. This does not necessarily mean that SPC will issue one but we feel the potential does exist.
Warm southerly or southwesterly flow will be moving into the region. The weather is going to take a turn for being hot and sticky across the region.
With this heat ..we also have the potential for garden variety thunderstorms as well as severe thunderstorms almost on a daily basis starting with tomorrow.
Low pressure will be in southern Canada above Lake superior by 00z this evening. From this low pressure is a cold front that is stretching south and west to another low pressure over the western part of the Dakotas.
By 00z tomorrow evening low pressure should be over Northern Michigan and the cold front is going to start pushing towards the south and be across Northern NY at that time. A lee trough should also develop.
CAPE will be 500-5000 depending on where you live
Lift index will generally be in the –4 to –8 range.
Mid level lapse rates will be decent at 6.0-6.5
The main threats from these storms will be straight line winds over 60 MPH and large hail. The showers and thunderstorms will break out in advance and ahead of the cold front.
Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary
No comments:
Post a Comment