The above image is based off the latest SREF /GFS combination. We have included portions of the Northeast in this outlook due to a Upper level trough should be moving across the lakes into the Northeast.
Essentially most of the conus from the central part of the US into the east is under the influence of ridging. This is providing a very moist atmosphere along with some very warm to hot temperatures.
At the surface there is a stationary front across the southeast with an area of low pressure off the southeast coast over the atlantic. By this evening there is expected to be multiple pieces of energy which are expected to move off to the Northeast.
By tomorrow evening there should be a cold front stretching SW from a low pressure in southern canada. As this low moves east it will drag and drop the cold front south . It is the combination of this trough moving south and east over the lakes and the cold front dropping south and east that will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms some of which could be severe into the Northeast.
Further west it will be the multiple shortwave troughs moving from the southwest towards the Northeast into a very warm and moist air mass.
The main threats will be winds and hail with any of these storms ..however..an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. As the evening progresses the lower level jet is anticipated to strengthen so this could keep severe weather going into the overnight hours in areas off to the west particularly in the mid Missouri Valley region.
Stay tuned for more information.
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