July 3rd Severe Weather Potential

Right away we are going to start this off again by saying that we are not too impressed with the severe weather chances for tomorrow. We will explain why in a little bit..

Lets look at the severe parameters in place across the outlook area..

CAPE is 500-4000 depending on where you are located

Lift Index is 0 to –8 depending on where you are located..

SWEAT index is above 400 from North Dakota south into Nebraska and then into Montana as well , Mainly the central to eastern side of Nebraska. However in these areas moisture return may be a bit of a problem.

EHI is actually the highest in SE Nebraska to E KS

So the above locations with the EHI is where we would say an isolated tornado could exist..However once again we think the main threats with any storms will be the winds and hail.

So here is why we do not think the severe weather chances are going to be all that great especially across the eastern regions.

If you look at the current radar you are going to see a cluster of storms /rain above the Great Lakes..this cluster of storms is going to start dropping down towards the SE…

This is going to do two things:

1. This is going to bring the advancement of clouds into the region probably by late evening and showers and garden variety storms are going to start to move into locations like W PA .

2. The cold front is dropping and going to be moving South and east as well and should be approaching W PA by 06 Z or 2 AM. This is why we were not impressed with severe weather for saturday in these regions because of the timing involved. 

What this also means is that the front is probably going to be approaching locations like eastern PA between 8 AM-2 PM this is not going to allow sufficient daytime heating..especially with the storms/rain approaching from the NW in the overnight hours.

3. The other thing working against severe weather is that the PARAMETERS themselves are rather weak across the eastern states and the cold front itself is on the weak side. There is not really much of a temperature drop behind the front.

So we are depending on daytime heating along with the advancement of a trough to trigger any severe weather. With low shear forecasted across the region there is not going to be much to sustain any severe storms..So we are looking more along the lines of Isolated and garden variety type storms then anything else.

Of course we will continue to monitor the scenario and if anything changes we will update this post!