The title reflects the discussion. National hurricane center has this now at a 80% chance of developing within the next 48 hrs. So have conditions actually improved with this system?
AS of last update..shear was not an issue and shear continues to be not an issue with this particular system trying to develop.
If you remember last night the greatest area of convergence was off to the NW of the system and that continues to be the case at this point and time. The system is in decent divergence which was also the case when we updated last about this system.
Latest vorticity shows it continues to have the same problem as it did at last update which was a very elongated or broad system. Now last night the center of circulation was closer to the best area of vorticity but as you can see that area is now further to the west of the COC.
Perhaps the greatest problem that has to be overcome by this system is the dry air which you can see is encroaching on all sides of this system. A tropical wave trying to develop does not want to ingest dry air into it because it simply will not develop.
So as you can see ..nothing has really changed with this system. We still do not have a vertically stacked low pressure area, we still have low shear, outside the best area of convergence, decent divergence and still an astronomical amount of dry air in place.
Steering also shows the ridge in place that is still guiding this system and it should continue to mainly head off to the west north west towards the islands.
Guidance is still split as well with the 12 Z GFS showing a recurve and the ECM showing a weaker system.
We will continue to keep the chances for development at 50% for this system . If 91 L is able to overcome the obstacles in its path we still do think it can obtain Tropical Depression status. However..beyond that with the guidance split we will continue to monitor the system for any further development!
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