The above map is based on the latest GFS/NAM/SREF.
The cold front we talked about yesterday is in the process of moving thru the region currently. It should pass thru completely this evening but it will then stall just to the south of Pa. Low pressure will be along the front over Northern VA and this front stretches back to the west to another low over western KY and then west from there to another low over the OK/TX panhandle.
Low pressure over the OK TX panhandle will generally move to the east –north east and be located over southern ohio by 2 PM and then over Northern VA by 8 PM . This is going to bring some unsettled weather into the region from the Carolina’s into the Northeast with showers and garden variety thunderstorms of which from PA north into the NE could end up with some isolated severe.
Further to the NW over the upper plains ..another low pressure will be moving across Canada and with it is a complex frontal system. As that system slides east it will pull the frontal system thru that part of the region and cause the potential for showers and severe thunderstorms.
The main threats in any of the above regions look to be hail and wind. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out in the upper plains region.
Over the Carolinas region we are mainly looking at storms being caused by the stationary front, daytime heating and wind shear of between 30-40 knots. Main threats here will also be winds/hail.
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