Invest 91 L ..70 % development chances..some things to overcome!

This is the latest look at Invest 91 L . The next tropical system that we have to keep a watch on.

91 L definitely has some “spunk” to it but as you know we like to look at the environment that surrounds the system that we are watching..

First problem that lies ahead is the dry air that is to the north and to the south and to the east and to the west of this system.

Second problem which is only a temporary problem we believe is that the best convergence lies to the NW of the system. Divergence is good ..

Another problem is that right now the vorticity is very broad in nature or elongated. Whenever you have something that is this broad in nature it always takes more time for it to tighten up and this is the case as this system is not vertically stacked..

Shear is not an issue what so ever with this system at the current time..

So as you can see there is some issues that have to be overcome before this can develop. If it can overcome these issues mentioned above then it should be able to develop but once it develops the next question is where does it go?

Well guidance has been pretty much split. There really is no sense in looking at the hurricane models because until there is a center of circulation for them to pinpoint and feed off its going to go back and forth between no development/development.

So we look to the GFS and at 12 Z it shows a strong system that recurves and so does the 00z ..Here it is below:

So if the GFS is correct we have a hurricane on our hands that will do nothing more to the USA then rough surf possible along the coast.

However..the ECM says not so quick. At 12 Z it was not impressed at all with the system…and 00z we see this:

And 144 it looks like this:

Still continues to be unimpressed with the system over all. The problems already start at 120 hrs out in the guidance…here is the GFS at 120

So you can see the difference…right from 120 hours out! ECM is generally the better performing model in the 3-5 day range..

One thing for certain is that because of the high pressure in the Atlantic this invest should continue to head off on a west track and the antille islands would be the first that will have to deal with whatever becomes of Invest 91 L.

National hurricane center has this developing in the next 48 hrs to a tropical depression at 70%. We feel that 50% would be more accurate at this point and time.

If this keeps heading on a westerly track it will take it across the islands and this would more or less favor a weaker system AKA ECM..this is what we are going with right now as our thinking.. Depression status will probably occur within the next 36-60 hrs …

Stay tuned for more information over the coming days!