This is going to be relatively brief considering it is the 4th of July and festivities are going on. The above is based off of the GFS/SREF blend.
CAPE is 1000-4000 depending on where you live in the outlined area above
Lift Index is 0 to –8 depending on where you reside..
Ridging will continue to persist into the Plains region and the central part of the US while the NE into the Great lakes continues to be in a trough.
Meanwhile there is a stationary front stretched from west to east across the southeast and area of low pressure over E Virginia and this stationary front stretches west to multiple shortwave energies over the rockies.
By about 8 AM a low pressure area will be moving across the southern Tier of Canada and this will begin to drag a cold front across the plains and great lakes region.
These storms are going to be mainly driven by the daytime heating and the fronts mentioned above will be the focal point. Not everyone in the zone will see severe weather but the potential is there for garden variety type thunderstorms as well of which any storm could become severe given the parameters in place. The main threats will be large hail and wind and we are not really anticipating any tornadic activity!
Stay tuned for further info should it become necessary & enjoy your holiday this 4th of July! God Bless!
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