Real Wx Services: Discussion for Severe Weather Outlook for the 20th of May

Discussion for Severe Weather Outlook for the 20th of May 2012..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif.. Current weather analysis as of 03 Z shows a cold front stretching north to south from the Canadian border to a low pressure system located over TX. This cold front is expected to move east and then stall across TX from about Wichita Falls to a Abilene TX line from NW to SE.. but will then cross the eastern parts of the severe zone ( TN/KY ) between 00z and 12 Z Sunday evening into Monday morning. Parameters for the region.. TEMPERATURES generally in the 80s ahead of the front...http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/20/00/NAM_221_2012052000_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png..DEWPOINTS 60-70 http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/20/00/NAM_221_2012052000_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png...CAPE 500 to about 3500 http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/20/00/NAM_221_2012052000_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png ..LIFT INDEX to negative 8 http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/20/00/NAM_221_2012052000_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png.. EHI is essentially non existent..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/20/00/NAM_221_2012052000_F24_EHI_1000_M.png ...HELICITY essentially non existent http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/20/00/NAM_221_2012052000_F24_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ..SHEAR 30 knots and upwards..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/20/00/NAM_221_2012052000_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png ..All and all with no EHI and no Helicity present we put the tornado chances at less then 2 % anywhere... Main threats will be damaging winds and hail and heavy rain..

Down to Earth Forecasting-What's The Difference?

Down to Earth Forecasting is a concept that I have created. Its a concept that bases forecasts of the weather on actual analysis of the weather models, patterns, signals, analogs etc. It does not tolerate wishcasting or hypecasting. Its goal is to provide forecasts that are 100% honest as well as, forecasts that are as close to accurate as possible!
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Down to Earth Forecasting History & Team!

Down to Earth Forecasting was a concept that was originally called Bringing Weather Back To Reality! This concept basically implied that everywhere I went there was too much forecasting of what people wished for etc in there back yard. If the weather models called for 4 inches , people would be calling for a Blizzard! This type of forecasting is actually called wishcasting and is something that I have never been able to tolerate as a weather hobbyist. So i came up with the name of Bringing Weather Back to Reality which meant that I believed in making forecasts that were based on sound analysis of all weather parameters involved. I then decided the name was too long and hence changed BWBTR to Real Weather Services or R.W.S & the most recent change to Down To Earth Forecasting which we think is more suitable!

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Sunday, May 20, 2012

Discussion for Severe Weather Outlook for the 20th of May

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