Real Wx Services: Severe Weather Outlook May 16th 2012

Severe Weather Outlook May 16th 2012
Temperatures in the 70s-80's
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/16/00/NAM_221_2012051600_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
DEW POINTS in the 60s
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/16/00/NAM_221_2012051600_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE 500-2500 Depending where you reside in the severe zone..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/16/00/NAM_221_2012051600_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
An interesting aspect to the severe zone is the area of Western CT and western MA...EHI is actually favorable for the potential of a tornado..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/16/00/NAM_221_2012051600_F24_EHI_1000_M.png
LIFT Index is to about - 5 depending where you are..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/16/00/NAM_221_2012051600_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
HELICITY to about 200
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/16/00/NAM_221_2012051600_F24_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR is 35 knots +
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/16/00/NAM_221_2012051600_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
Trigger will be a cold front moving across the Northeast with a weaker front crossing the Southeast region.
Once the cold front moves off the coast the threat for severe will diminish. The main threats will be damaging winds with some hail possible ..However..keep in mind there could be an isolated tornado with the EHI being above 1 in the areas mentioned above..

Down to Earth Forecasting-What's The Difference?

Down to Earth Forecasting is a concept that I have created. Its a concept that bases forecasts of the weather on actual analysis of the weather models, patterns, signals, analogs etc. It does not tolerate wishcasting or hypecasting. Its goal is to provide forecasts that are 100% honest as well as, forecasts that are as close to accurate as possible!
We believe that if you teach others how to read weather models, how to pick up on weather patterns and the basic concepts of weather..that you can actually do away with wishcasting and hypecasting and have all forecasts based on REALITY!

Down to Earth Forecasting History & Team!

Down to Earth Forecasting was a concept that was originally called Bringing Weather Back To Reality! This concept basically implied that everywhere I went there was too much forecasting of what people wished for etc in there back yard. If the weather models called for 4 inches , people would be calling for a Blizzard! This type of forecasting is actually called wishcasting and is something that I have never been able to tolerate as a weather hobbyist. So i came up with the name of Bringing Weather Back to Reality which meant that I believed in making forecasts that were based on sound analysis of all weather parameters involved. I then decided the name was too long and hence changed BWBTR to Real Weather Services or R.W.S & the most recent change to Down To Earth Forecasting which we think is more suitable!

Down To Earth Forecasting will issue special weather statements when conditions and time permit for all types of weather from winter weather to summer weather and you will find that when we issue a statement it is always in ADVANCE of the NWS. This is something that we take pride in! Getting the word to our readers first and promptly.

Down To Earth Forecasting consists of Kevin Quigley & Rick Boucher & Creator and owner Matt Strouse. These three individuals make up Down To Earth Forecasting and one day will be a household name

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Severe Weather Outlook May 16th 2012

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