May 22nd 2012 Severe Weather Outlook.

Alright tonight we have started to do things a bit differently here with the severe weather forecasts. I have quite a few people that I personally know that are down in TX..so we are going to be using a TX zoomed in county map for the severe weather in TX which means that TX will not be highlighted on the main USA map..
So lets look at the Severe Weather Parameters that will be in place for May 22nd 2012 Severe Weather Outlook... There is no doubt about the temperatures it is going to be a scorcher with temperatures in the 80 to 90 + range...http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/22/06/NAM_221_2012052206_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ...DEWPOINTS will be in the 50s on the western side of TX to the 60-70 range pretty much elsewhere..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/22/06/NAM_221_2012052206_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ..CAPE VALUES are 500-4000 depending where you are located in the highlighted zones..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/22/06/NAM_221_2012052206_F18_CAPE_SURFACE.png ...LIFT INDEX from 0 to as low as negative 10 ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/22/06/NAM_221_2012052206_F18_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... ENERGY HELICITY VALUES are above 1 in North Dakota and South Dakota ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/22/06/NAM_221_2012052206_F18_EHI_1000_M.png ..This means ND and SD will be our target zone for tornado potential...HELICITY is generally 200 or less in those areas ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/22/06/NAM_221_2012052206_F18_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ..this means that tornado potential will be in place but on the low side of 2% . No doubt that SHEAR will be in place with 30 knots to the south over TX to as high as 60 knots further N into the Dakota region..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/22/06/NAM_221_2012052206_F18_SHRM_500_MB.png ...Weather Synopsis .. A strong upper level trough ..You can see the disturbance moving across the Northern Rockies when looking at the satellite http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l12&region=us ..So this trough in the upper levels will advance eastwards while a low pressure will be moving across the northern Rockies northeastwards into Southern Canada... A stationary front is pretty much expected to be draped across the region http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif and it will be this front that helps to trigger off the severe weather potential along with the upper level trough producing height falls out ahead of it and the disturbance moving towards the Dakotas into Southern Canada.. Main severe threats will consist of hail and winds with heavy rains with the worst of the severe to the north over the Dakotas where the strongest shear along with the EHI will be where they can expect Winds, Hail and Isolated tornado's! Sorry this is so late today but we were working on some other things that took longer to get accomplished then originally intended!